Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. On paper, you'd think Sturm Graz should have this sorted - they're sitting pretty in 2nd place while Wattens are down in 9th. But football's not played on paper, is it?

Sturm Graz have been proper shocking recently, mate. Only 2 wins in their last 10 games, and at home? Zero wins in their last 4 at their own patch. They're leaking goals like a sieve too - 1.7 per game on average. They've been getting battered by the decent sides, losing 1-3 at home to both Lask Linz and Wolfsberger AC. Yeah, they nicked a 1-0 win at TSV Hartberg last time out, but let's not get carried away.

Now WSG Wattens, that's a different story altogether. They've been proper solid recently - 5 wins in their last 10, and away from home they're unbeaten in 6 with 3 wins and 3 draws. Their defense is like a brick wall - only 0.5 goals conceded per game and clean sheets in 60% of their matches. They went to Red Bull Salzburg and won 3-2, for crying out loud! That's some serious quality.

The head-to-head is all Sturm Graz - 8 wins, 1 draw, no losses. But that's history, and right now, Wattens look the better side. The goal expectancy numbers back this up too, suggesting Wattens might actually outscore them.

Given Sturm Graz's defensive woes and Wattens's solid backline, I'm leaning towards a low-scoring affair here. Neither side looks particularly prolific in attack, but Wattens definitely have the defensive edge right now.