Stockport County vs Lincoln Prediction

Right then, let's get stuck into this Boxing Day cracker. Stockport County welcome Lincoln to town in a proper top-of-the-table tussle. Lincoln are sitting pretty in second, three points ahead of Stockport in fifth, but the Hatters have a game in hand. On paper, it's a belter.

But let's talk form, and it makes for interesting reading. Stockport's recent results are a bit of a mixed bag. They've nicked two decent away wins at Mansfield and Doncaster, but their home form? Blimey. No wins in their last five at home, drawing three and losing two. They got turned over 1-3 by Stevenage and 0-3 by Luton on their own patch. They're scoring just 0.6 goals a game at home and conceding 1.6. That's not the record of a side looking to break into the automatic spots.

Lincoln, on the other hand, are flying. They've won five of their last ten, including a massive 2-1 victory over league leaders Cardiff just last week. Their away form isn't quite as glittering, mind you. They've only won one of their last five on the road, drawing two and losing two, including a 3-0 thumping at Rotherham. They score more away from home (1.4 per game) but they also leak goals, conceding 1.8 on average on their travels.

Now, here's the spanner in the works. The head-to-head. Stockport absolutely love playing Lincoln at home. Three games, three wins. One hundred percent record. The last time they met, back in April, it finished 3-2. So, despite their current home struggles, they seem to have Lincoln's number when they roll into town.

So what's the game gonna be? Lincoln will fancy their chances against a shaky home defence. Stockport will be desperate to turn their home form around and will take heart from that historical dominance. Looking at the stats, both teams have been involved in games where both nets bulge. Lincoln have seen both teams score in 60% of their last ten, Stockport in 50%. With Lincoln's potent attack (1.5 goals per game recently) and leaky away defence, and Stockport's decent recent scoring form (averaging 1.67 goals in their last three), chances are both keepers will be picking the ball out of the net.

The bookies have both teams to score at a nice even 1.91. Given the patterns we're seeing, that looks like a bit of value to me. The goal expectancy models are pointing towards over 2.5 goals as well, but I fancy the BTTS market is the safer play here. Stockport's home attack is the biggest question mark, but that historical scoring record against Lincoln and their recent uptick in goals gives me enough confidence.

Key Points:

Lincoln are 2nd, in better overall form with 5 wins in 10.

Stockport have a shocking home record: 0 wins in last 5 at home.

However, Stockport have a 100% home win record against Lincoln (3 wins from 3).

Lincoln score (1.5) and concede (1.4) regularly; their away games average 3.2 total goals.

Both teams have scored in 60% of Lincoln's last 10 and 50% of Stockport's.

Recent H2H games have been high-scoring (3-2, 1-2, 1-1 in last three).

The Simple Verdict: This has all the makings of an open, entertaining Boxing Day fixture. Lincoln will attack, Stockport will be desperate to prove a point at home, and history says goals fly in when these two meet. I can't back Stockport to win with their current home form, and Lincoln's away record isn't convincing enough for an away win punt. The smart money, with a bit of value, is on both teams finding the net.