Burton Albion vs Blackpool Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this bottom-half clash between Burton and Blackpool. Both sides are sitting in the relegation scrap, but there's a world of difference in how they're playing at the moment.

Burton have been a proper Jekyll and Hyde side recently. One minute they're banging six past St Albans in the FA Cup and three past Bolton at home, the next they're getting stuffed 4-0 by Plymouth. But here's the thing - at home, they're scoring for fun. Two goals per game on their own patch, which ain't bad at this level. They also went and beat Bradford 2-1 away, and Bradford are sitting pretty in second place, so that tells you Burton can turn up when they want to.

Blackpool, on the other hand, are struggling big time on their travels. Just look at their away form - one win in their last four away games, and they're only managing 0.75 goals per game away from home. That's shocking, mate. They did have a decent 3-1 win over Cardiff at home, but Cardiff are a different beast on the road.

The head-to-head doesn't make great reading for Burton fans - Blackpool have won five of the eight meetings between these two. But football's about now, not back then, and right now Burton's home form looks much better than Blackpool's away form.

When you break it down, Burton are averaging two goals at home while Blackpool are struggling to score one away from home. That's a massive mismatch. Blackpool are also keeping fewer clean sheets (10% vs Burton's 30%), which suggests they're more likely to concede.

The odds have Burton at 2.35 for the win, which looks pretty tasty to me. Blackpool are 2.90, but given their away form, that seems way too short. I reckon the bookies have got this one wrong - Burton should be shorter based on current form.

Both teams are on identical points per game over their last 10 matches (1.40), but Burton have the home advantage and are scoring more freely. Blackpool's away record is a proper red flag - they've lost three of their last four on the road and barely look like scoring.

I'm backing Burton to take this one. They've shown they can beat good teams and they're scoring well at home. Blackpool look like they'd rather be anywhere else when playing away from home.