Jong AZ vs FC OSS Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this scrap between two sides who're both finding life tough in the Eerste Divisie. Jong AZ are sitting 18th with just 14 points, while FC OSS aren't much better off in 15th with 15 points. This has got 'six-pointer' written all over it, mate.

Jong AZ's recent form has been proper hit and miss. They've had some brilliant results like that 4-0 hammering of Willem II and a 3-1 win at Almere City, but they've also shipped some right pastings - 0-4 at home to ADO Den Haag and back-to-back 0-2 defeats to VVV Venlo and FC Eindhoven. Their home form is particularly worrying, mind. Only one win in five at their own gaff and they're leaking goals for fun - 2.2 per game on average. That's not exactly fortress-like, is it?

FC OSS, on the other hand, have become the draw specialists of late. Six draws in their last ten games tells its own story. They're not scoring many - just 0.8 per game - but they're not conceding loads either (1.4 per game). Away from home, they've been hard to beat with four draws in five on the road. Recent results show they can hold their own too - 1-1 draws against Willem II, De Graafschap, and Jong PSV, plus a goalless draw at Jong Utrecht.

When these two have met before, it's usually been close affairs. Both teams have found the net in seven of their nine previous encounters, and Jong AZ have only beaten FC OSS once at home in three attempts. The last meeting ended 1-2 to FC OSS, so they know how to get at them.

Looking at the stats, Jong AZ are averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.9 conceded per game recently, while FC OSS are managing 0.8 scored and 1.4 conceded. The home side's defensive record is particularly dodgy - they've kept just two clean sheets in ten games. FC OSS might not be prolific, but they've scored in six of their last ten matches.

The goal expectancies suggest we're looking at around 2.8 goals in this one, and given Jong AZ's leaky home defence and FC OSS's knack of getting on the scoresheet even when not playing well, both teams finding the net looks the most likely outcome here.

Key Points:

• Jong AZ have the worst home defence in recent form, conceding 2.2 goals per game

• FC OSS are draw specialists with six draws in their last ten matches

• Both teams have scored in 7/9 previous head-to-head meetings

• Jong AZ have won just 20% of their home games this season

• FC OSS have scored in 60% of their recent away games despite low overall output

• The goal expectancies suggest 2.8 total goals in this match

This has all the makings of a tight, nervy affair between two struggling sides. Jong AZ will be desperate to improve their home form, but that defensive record is a real concern. FC OSS will be happy to sit tight and nick something on the break or grab another draw. Given the home side's defensive vulnerabilities and both teams' need for points, I'm expecting both to get on the scoresheet here.