Grazer AK vs Wolfsberger AC Prediction

May the form be with you. Grazer AK host Wolfsberger AC in the Bundesliga, and the numbers point one way. Grazer sit 12th with 3 points from 4 matches, while Wolfsberger are 6th with 4 points from 3. Grazer's last 10 games have produced just 3 wins, 1 draw and 6 losses, with a goal difference of -14 and an average of 0.90 goals scored against 2.30 conceded. Their last league games were losses to Ried 1-0, Rapid Vienna 8-0, and Lask Linz 3-0, with a 2-1 win over Austria Lustenau in between. At home over their last 6, Grazer have a win rate of 33.33%, and their away form is even weaker: 25% wins and 75% losses in the last 4.

Wolfsberger AC, by contrast, have a win rate of 50% in their last 10, 1.9 points per game, 3.2 goals scored and just 1.1 conceded. Their last league results include a 3-0 win at Austria Vienna, a 1-1 draw at Red Bull Salzburg, and a 1-2 loss at Austria Lustenau. On the road in their last 3 matches, Wolfsberger have a 66.67% win rate and average 3.33 goals scored. Their home record over the last 7 is also strong, with 0 losses and a 42.86% win rate.

The head-to-head record favors Wolfsberger: 6 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses for Grazer over 10 meetings. The most recent clash was a 1-0 Wolfsberger win at Grazer on April 25, 2026. Grazer's home record against them is 2-0-4, but the recent trend is toward Wolfsberger.

The goal expectancy model gives Grazer 0.92 expected goals and Wolfsberger 2.58, a gap that aligns with Wolfsberger's 70% both-teams-to-score rate in their last 10 and their +1.61 finishing delta. Grazer's finishing delta is -0.10, and their 14-day form shows only 2 matches with 8 days of rest, while Wolfsberger have 14 days of rest and just 1 match in the last 14 days.

The odds price Wolfsberger at 2.30 for the match, 2.90 for Grazer, and 3.50 for a draw. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.73, while the fair probability for Over 2.5 is 54.6%. The market's implied probability for an Away Win is about 43.5%, but the stacked signals—form, venue, H2H, goal expectancy, and finishing edge—suggest a higher fair probability for Wolfsberger.

Key Points:

• Grazer AK are 12th with 3 points from 4; Wolfsberger AC are 6th with 4 points from 3.

• Grazer's last 10: 3W 1D 6L, 0.90 goals scored, 2.30 conceded; last league games: Ried 1-0, Rapid 8-0, Lask 3-0.

• Wolfsberger's last 10: 5W 4D 1L, 3.20 goals scored, 1.10 conceded; last 3 away: 66.67% wins.

• H2H: Wolfsberger 6 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses for Grazer; most recent: 0-1 at Grazer.

• Goal expectancy: Grazer 0.92, Wolfsberger 2.58; finishing delta favors Wolfsberger by +1.61.

• Odds: Away Win 2.30, Home Win 2.90, Draw 3.50; Over 2.5 1.73.

With the evidence stacked, the wise bet is Wolfsberger AC to win the match, Away Win at 2.30.