Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest Prediction

A clash of contrasting fortunes, this is. Third place Aston Villa welcomes seventeenth place Nottingham Forest to Villa Park. In the standings, a chasm of twenty-one points separates them. Yet in football, the past matters not, only the present does.

Nine victories from their last ten matches, Villa has. Only a 4-1 defeat to the mighty Arsenal, the league leaders, blemishes their record. Impressive wins against Chelsea, Manchester United, and even Arsenal earlier in December, they have. At home, formidable they are: four wins from four, conceding just 0.75 goals per game. The force of momentum, with them it flows, despite what the 'declining trends' whisper.

Nottingham Forest, on a path of darkness they tread. Three consecutive defeats they suffer: 0-2 to Everton, 1-2 to Manchester City, 0-1 to Fulham. Their last three matches, zero points and only 0.33 goals per game they average. A curious team they are: capable of a stunning 3-0 victory at Liverpool, yet inconsistent like the wind. Away from home, five wins from their last ten they have, but the recent light has faded.

Look to the history between them, we must. In eight meetings, Villa has won four, Forest two. At Villa Park, unbeaten against Forest, Villa is: three wins and one draw from four encounters. The last meeting, a 2-1 victory for Villa in April. Over 2.5 goals, in five of those eight clashes we saw.

The numbers tell a story of two different philosophies. Villa's games, fireworks they often are: both teams score in 90% of their last ten, goals flow at both ends. Forest's matches, tighter they are: both teams score in only 20% of their last ten. Villa attacks with efficiency: 2.10 goals per game from 12.6 shots. Forest shoots more (14.6 per game) but finds the target less accurately (36% vs Villa's 46%).

Four days of rest, both teams have had. Equal preparation, this provides. But the weight of the table and recent results, a heavy burden on Forest it places.

Key Points:

Aston Villa sit 3rd with 39 points; Nottingham Forest 17th with 18 points

Villa have won 9 of their last 10 matches (90% win rate)

Forest have lost their last 3 matches, scoring just 1 goal total

At home, Villa have won their last 4, conceding only 0.75 goals per game

Head-to-head at Villa Park: Villa unbeaten (3 wins, 1 draw)

Villa's matches see both teams score 90% of the time; Forest's only 20%

• Odds: Home win 1.80, Draw 3.60, Away win 4.50

In the balance of the force, clearly to one side it leans. The value, in the home victory it lies. At odds of 1.80, a bet with positive expected value this is. Recommend HOME_WIN, I do.