Portsmouth vs West Brom Prediction

Right then, let's talk about this Championship six-pointer down at Fratton Park. Portsmouth, sitting 21st, host West Brom in 20th. Just three points between them. This isn't just a game, it's a proper relegation dogfight, and I fancy there'll be a few goals in it for the neutrals.

First, the home side. Pompey's form has picked up a bit, let's be honest. They're unbeaten in their last three league games. A solid 1-1 draw with Southampton, another 1-1 away at a decent Watford side, and a 1-0 win over the league's basement boys, Sheffield Wednesday. They're hard to beat right now, but here's the rub – they're also hard to keep a clean sheet. Just one shut-out in their last ten matches. At home, they score a respectable 1.4 goals per game but let in 1.6. They're involved, that's for sure.

Now, the Baggies. Blimey, they've had a rough time of it. Two wins in their last ten, and none in their last six. They've been on the end of some proper hidings recently – a 5-0 home defeat to Norwich and a 3-2 loss to Middlesbrough. They're conceding goals for fun, averaging 1.7 per game over that period. Away from home, it's even bleaker: no wins in their last five, scoring just 0.6 goals per game on the road. But, and it's a big but, they still create chances. Their away stats show they average more shots on target than Portsmouth do at home (4.6 vs 4.4). They're just not putting them away.

The head-to-head makes grim reading if you're a Pompey fan. West Brom have won two of the last three meetings, including a 5-1 thrashing just over a year ago. The most recent game was a 1-1 draw back in August, so maybe the tide is turning?

When you put it all together, what do you get? Two teams who can't defend. Portsmouth have seen both teams score in 7 of their last 10. West Brom have seen it in 6 of their last 10. The goal expectancies point to over 2.5, and the bookies have Both Teams to Score at a very backable 1.83. Sometimes the maths is simple: leaky defence + leaky defence = goals at both ends.

Key Points:

Form: Portsmouth are unbeaten in three (W1 D2). West Brom are winless in six (D2 L4).

Defence: Both sides have kept just one clean sheet in their last ten matches.

Goals: Portsmouth's home games average 3.0 total goals. West Brom's away games average 1.8.

History: West Brom have dominated this fixture (W2 D1), but the last meeting was a draw.

• Stats: West Brom create more shots on target away (4.6) than Portsmouth do at home (4.4).

Summary: This has all the makings of a tense, scrappy affair with both teams knowing how important the points are. But with two defences that have been about as solid as a wet paper bag, chances will come. I can see both teams having their moments and finding the net. The value, for me, lies in backing goals at both ends.

My Tip: Both Teams to Score - Yes