U.N.A.M. - Pumas vs Cruz Azul Prediction

Right then, we've got a proper top-of-the-table clash here as Cruz Azul roll into town to face U.N.A.M. - Pumas. The league leaders against the fifth-placed side, and on paper, this looks like a mismatch – but we all know football ain't played on paper, it's played on grass with a dodgy ref and a dodgier linesman!

Cruz Azul are absolutely flying at the moment, mate. Nine wins from their last ten, unbeaten in the league, and they've been putting away some proper teams. They beat Monterrey twice in four days – once in the league and once in that Champions League malarkey – and they've already seen off Chivas and Tigres at home. They're banging in 2.7 goals a game and barely letting anything in at the back. Top of the league with 25 points from 10 games tells you everything you need to know.

Pumas, meanwhile, are having a decent season – 19 points from 10 games is nothing to sniff at – but they're stuttering a bit lately. They lost 3-2 to Toluca recently and only scraped past bottom-half Necaxa 1-0 last time out. At home they're usually solid enough, but here's the kicker: they absolutely hate playing Cruz Azul at their own gaff. The head-to-head is a nightmare for them – Cruz Azul have won three and drawn one of the last four visits here. Pumas haven't beaten them at home in this fixture for donkey's years.

Now, there is a bit of a fatigue angle to consider. Cruz Azul played on Tuesday night against Monterrey, so they've only had four days rest compared to Pumas' eight. That might level the playing field a touch, especially late in the game. But when a team's in this kind of form – winning 83% of their away games and scoring 2.5 goals a pop on the road – you don't bet against them just because they're a bit tired.

The bookies have Cruz Azul at 2.05, which is skinny but fair. You're not getting rich quick at those odds, but the maths says they win this more often than not. Pumas' home defence is decent (0.8 goals conceded per game), but Cruz Azul's attack is on another level entirely.

Key Points:

• Cruz Azul are top of Liga MX with 8 wins from 10, unbeaten in their last 10 matches (9 wins, 1 draw)

• Pumas sit 5th but have won just 2 of their last 5, including a 3-2 home defeat to Toluca

• Head-to-head heavily favours Cruz Azul, who are unbeaten in their last 4 visits to Pumas (3 wins, 1 draw)

• Cruz Azul have beaten strong opposition recently including Monterrey (twice), Chivas and Tigres

• Fatigue factor: Cruz Azul have played 3 matches in 14 days vs Pumas' 2, with only 4 days rest since Tuesday's CCL tie

The Verdict:

It's not the biggest price you'll ever see, but sometimes you've just got to follow the form. Cruz Azul are a machine right now, and Pumas have a mental block against them at home. Back the away win at 2.05 – it's short but it's right.