Alverca vs Nacional Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Primeira Liga scrap between Alverca and Nacional. Both sides are knocking around in mid-table, separated by just two points, so this could be a proper six-pointer despite it being only December.

Alverca have been a bit of a mixed bag lately, haven't they? They've had some decent results - beating Casa Pia 0-2 away, AVS 1-3 on the road, and solid home wins against Guimaraes (2-0) and Tondela (1-0). But blimey, they've also taken some proper hidings. That 5-1 hammering by Sporting CP in the cup and the 4-0 home defeat to GIL Vicente show they can be absolute shocking at the back. At home though, they've been half-decent recently with a 50% win rate in their last four on their own patch.

Nacional, on the other hand, are struggling a bit. Only 3 wins in their last 10 games, and recent losses to Benfica (1-2), Braga (4-2), and Famalicao (0-1) won't have done their confidence any good. But here's the thing - their away form's actually better than their home form. They're scoring 1.33 goals per game on the road, which isn't too shabby at this level.

Now, let's talk about the defending because it's shocking stuff, especially from Nacional. Only ONE clean sheet in their last 10 games! That's absolutely woeful, isn't it? They're conceding goals for fun, and when you look at their recent games, both teams have scored in 70% of them. Alverca aren't exactly defensive masters either - they're letting in 1.70 goals per game.

Both teams are averaging 1.30 goals scored per game, so they both know where the net is. Alverca only score 1.00 at home, but Nacional's defensive record is so poor that even that might be enough.

The head-to-head's blank, so we've got no history to go on, but based on current form, this looks like both teams will get on the scoresheet. Nacional just can't keep it tight at the back, and Alverca have shown they can score against anyone on their day.

Key Points:

• Both teams separated by just 2 points in mid-table

• Nacional have only 1 clean sheet in 10 games - shocking defensively

• Both teams scoring 1.30 goals per game on average

• Alverca's home form: 50% win rate in last 4 at home

• Nacional's away form: better than home, scoring 1.33 per game

• BTTS in 70% of Nacional's recent games, 50% of Alverca's

This has got both teams to score written all over it, doesn't it? Nacional's defending is so ropey that even Alverca's modest home attack should find a way through, and Nacional are scoring goals on their travels. At 1.95, it looks decent value for what seems the most likely outcome.