Preview
Oh, what a treat we have in store at the home of football this Saturday! Our beloved little puppies Dundee welcome fifth-placed Hibernian, and while the table might suggest a straightforward afternoon for the visitors, this old underdog spotter is wagging his tail at the prices on offer.
Let's talk about the form book, because it makes for fascinating reading. Dundee come into this clash sitting ninth in the Premiership, but don't let that fool you into thinking they're pushovers. Over their last ten outings, they've been plucky little fighters, picking up 1.50 points per game with four wins and three draws. More importantly, they've shown a real knack for rising to the occasion against the big boys. Just a week ago, they went toe-to-toe with third-placed Celtic and came away with a hard-fought 1-1 draw, and before that they secured a magnificent 3-2 victory away at Aberdeen. These aren't the results of a team that knows its place at the bottom end of the table!
At home, Dundee have been particularly resilient against the very best. They've only lost by a single goal to league leaders Heart Of Midlothian (0-1) and held Celtic to that draw. When the pressure is on and the crowd gets behind them, these puppies have bite.
Now, let's look at Hibernian. Yes, they're fifth and yes, they pulled off a stunning 2-1 win at Celtic last time out, which will have the casual punters flocking to back them at skinny odds. But here's the thing about Hibernian on the road – they're about as consistent as a Scottish summer! In their last five away matches, they've lost three of them, including a quite frankly embarrassing 4-1 thrashing at Falkirk and a cup exit against Dunfermline. They concede 1.60 goals per game away from home, which is significantly worse than their tight home record of just 0.60 conceded.
The head-to-head history is another reason to get excited if you're wearing Dundee blue. While Hibernian have had the better of the overall record, Dundee have won 50% of their home matches against the Hibees, with two victories from four meetings. That's a trend that suggests the home advantage is real and significant in this fixture.
When we look at the underlying numbers, Dundee actually create more chances at home (19.33 shots per game) compared to Hibernian's away output (9.50 shots per game). The visitors may have more points in the bag, but they're not dominating territorially on the road.
Key Points:
- Dundee have taken four wins from their last ten matches, including impressive results against Celtic (1-1) and Aberdeen (3-2 away)
- Hibernian have lost 60% of their last five away games, conceding 1.60 goals per game on the road
- Dundee have won 50% of home meetings against Hibernian historically
- Hibernian's recent away form includes heavy defeats to Falkirk (4-1) and Dunfermline (1-0)
- The odds of 3.25 for a Dundee win represent significant value given the home side's ability to compete with top sides
This is exactly the type of match that gets my underdog senses tingling! Hibernian arrive with reputation intact after beating Celtic, but their away form is patchy at best. Dundee have shown they can mix it with the best at home, and at 3.25, the value is simply too good to ignore. Come on you little puppies, let's see another giant-killing!
