Mallorca vs Sevilla Prediction

Right then, let's have a butcher's at this La Liga clash between two sides having a bit of a wobble this season. Mallorca are down in 18th, Sevilla sitting a touch higher in 12th, but with only three points between them, this is a proper six-pointer down at the wrong end of the table.

Mallorca at home have been a different animal compared to their travels. They're scoring at a decent clip of 1.75 goals a game on their own patch, as we saw when they put three past Athletic Club and another three past Elche. But they're also leaking goals, conceding 1.25 per home game. That 3-0 loss away to Atletico Madrid last time out? Forget about it – that's what happens when you play the big boys. The story at their gaff is they score, but they also let you have a go.

Sevilla, on the other hand, have been all over the shop. Their away form reads like a horror story: just one win in their last five on the road. They managed a couple of draws at Elche and Valencia, but also copped a pasting at Real Madrid and got knocked out of the cup by Alaves. The positive? They're still finding the net away from home, scoring in three of those five. They just can't seem to stop the other lot scoring either, conceding 1.40 per game on their travels.

When these two have met, it's often been a close-run thing. Four of the last nine clashes have ended all square, and both teams have scored in nearly half of them. The last meeting was a 3-1 win for Sevilla back in October, but that was on their turf. At Mallorca's place, the hosts have a win, two draws, and a loss from the last four.

So, what's the play here? The maths tells a simple story. Mallorca's home games average three goals total (1.75 for, 1.25 against). Sevilla's away games average 2.4 goals (1.00 for, 1.40 against). Stick 'em together, and the goal expectancies point towards both teams having a decent chance of scoring. Mallorca's 'Both Teams to Score' rate is a hefty 60% over their last ten, and while Sevilla's is lower at 40%, their defence on the road is far from secure.

The bookies have 'Both Teams to Score - Yes' at 1.95, which is just shy of evens. Given the patterns we're seeing – two leaky defences and two attacks that can cause problems – I reckon the chance of both nets bulging is better than those odds suggest.

Key Points:

Mallorca score 1.75 goals per game at home but concede 1.25.

Sevilla score 1.00 goal per game away but concede 1.40.

Both Teams Scored in 60% of Mallorca's last 10 games.

Head-to-head history shows 4 draws in the last 9 meetings.

• Recent form for both sides is inconsistent, but goals are a common theme.

Summary: This has the feel of a proper scrap between two teams needing points. Neither defence inspires confidence, and both have shown they can find the back of the net in these types of games. The value, in my book, lies in backing both teams to get on the scoresheet.