Alverca vs Rio Ave Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this bottom-half scrap between Alverca and Rio Ave. Both sides are struggling this season, sitting in the relegation zone mix, and frankly, neither has looked particularly convincing at the back.

Alverca come into this on a proper rough patch. They've lost three of their last four games, and the defensive record has been shocking - they've shipped 11 goals in those four matches alone. A 0-4 hammering at home to GIL Vicente and back-to-back losses to Sporting CP (2-0 and 5-1) tell you all you need to know about their current defensive woes. To be fair, they did pick up a decent 2-0 win over Guimaraes at home a few weeks back, but that seems like a distant memory now.

Rio Ave haven't been much better, mind you. They're just one point above Alverca in the table and have been leaking goals for fun too. That 4-0 home defeat to Estoril was proper embarrassing, though they did show some grit with a 1-1 draw against Benfica and a 3-3 thriller with Arouca. On their travels, they've been pretty average - only winning one of their last six away games.

When you dig into the numbers, both teams are conceding exactly two goals per game on average this season. Neither can keep a clean sheet to save their lives - both have only managed two shutouts in ten matches. And both teams are finding the net regularly enough, with Alverca scoring 1.3 per game and Rio Ave 1.4.

The head-to-head doesn't give us much to go on with only two previous meetings, but that 2-2 draw last season suggests these matches can be open affairs.

Looking at the stats, both teams have a 60% rate of both teams scoring in their games. Given how leaky both defenses are and that both sides average around 1.3-1.4 goals scored per game, it's hard to see either keeping a clean sheet here.

The bookies have both teams to score at 1.91, which looks about right to me. Neither side has shown any defensive solidity recently, and both have enough firepower to trouble the scoreboard operators.