Newport County vs Tranmere Prediction

Alright, listen up! We've got a proper Tuesday night scrap down in League Two as Newport County, propping up the entire division, welcome a Tranmere side that couldn't buy a win away from home if they tried.

Now, looking at the table, it's grim reading for both. Newport are stone dead last with just 25 points from 34 games, while Tranmere are lurking up in 19th on 35 points. But don't let that ten-point gap fool you into thinking the visitors are any good right now – they're about as useful on the road as a chocolate teapot.

Tranmere have lost their last FIVE away games on the spin. Not drew, lost. We're talking 2-4 at Cambridge, 0-5 at Notts County, 1-2 at Crewe – they've shipped 14 goals in those five trips and scored just four. Their away record reads like a horror story: 0% wins, 100% losses in their last five on the road, conceding nearly three goals a game (2.80 to be exact).

Meanwhile, Newport might be bottom, but they're showing a bit of fight lately. They held Fleetwood to a 0-0 draw at the weekend and before that went to Salford and came away with a cracking 3-1 win. That's four points from their last three games, which for a side that's won just six games all season, is practically a purple patch. At home, they've had a tough run facing the likes of Cambridge and Accrington, but they did manage to beat mid-table Chesterfield 2-1 on home soil recently.

The head-to-head is tighter than a drum – four wins apiece with one draw in nine meetings. The last time they met in September, it finished 1-1, and you wouldn't be shocked if this was close again.

Here's where it gets interesting. The bookies have Tranmere as favourites at 2.38, with Newport at 3.00 and the draw at 3.30. Now, I'm no genius, but backing a team that's lost nine of their last ten games and five straight away trips at odds-on prices? That's taking the mickey. Newport at 3/1 looks a steal given they're at home against a side with the travel sickness.

The goal expectancies suggest we might see a few – Tranmere's games have been averaging over 2.9 goals in their last ten with that leaky defence conceding 2.2 per game. Newport aren't exactly free-scoring (0.8 per game recently), but against this Tranmere defence, even they might fancy their chances.

Key Points:

• Tranmere have lost their last 5 away games in a row (100% loss rate), conceding 2.8 goals per game on the road

• Newport are bottom of League Two but unbeaten in 2 of their last 3 matches (W1 D1 L1)

• Head-to-head record is perfectly balanced at 4 wins each from 9 meetings

• Tranmere have won just 1 of their last 10 games overall (L9), taking only 3 points from a possible 30

• Newport beat Chesterfield 2-1 at home in their most recent home victory

Summary:

Tranmere's away form is shocking and the bookies haven't adjusted. Newport at 3.00 is the value call here – they're showing signs of life and face a team that's forgotten how to win on the road. Get on the home win.