Manchester City vs Sunderland Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. City are sitting pretty in second spot, but they've been a bit leaky at the back lately, haven't they? Three losses in their last ten games, and they're shipping 1.4 goals per match on average. That 5-4 win at Fulham was proper end-to-end stuff, and they let two past Leeds at home too.

Sunderland, meanwhile, are having a right old time of it in sixth - who'd have thought it? They've been solid as a rock away from home, only letting in 0.8 goals per game on their travels. The problem is, they only score 0.6 goals away from home too. But here's the thing - they've netted against Arsenal and Chelsea recently, so they're not scared of the big boys.

When these two have met in the past, it's usually been a goal fest. Six of their eight meetings have seen both teams get on the scoresheet, and six have gone over 2.5 goals. City's home record is decent enough - 80% win rate - but they're not exactly keeping clean sheets for fun.

The stats paint an interesting picture. City are firing in 16.4 shots per game compared to Sunderland's 9.9, and they hog the ball with 57% possession. But Sunderland's away defensive record is no joke, and they've got some decent results on the road lately.

City look a bit tired too - four games in two weeks compared to Sunderland's two. That could be telling come Saturday afternoon.

Key Points:

• City concede 1.4 goals per game recently

• Sunderland have scored against Arsenal and Chelsea

• 6 of 8 H2H meetings saw both teams score

• City have played 4 games in 14 days (fatigue factor)

• Sunderland solid defensively away (0.8 goals conceded per game)

Given City's defensive wobbles and Sunderland's ability to nick goals against top teams, plus that tasty H2H record for goals, I'm fancying both teams to find the net here. City should have too much quality overall, but I reckon Sunderland might just sneak one.