Preview
Right, so we've got Accrington ST hosting Gillingham at their ground on 17 October at 14:00 UTC, and I must say this one's got me scratching my head a bit.
Here's the thing that jumps out at me first: Gillingham have been absolutely on fire. Five wins in their last ten games, 1.8 points per game, and they've won their last two - scoring 8 goals and conceding just 4. That 4-1 thrashing of Rotherham on 10 October and the 4-3 EFL Trophy win over Brighton U21 on 13 October show a side that's clicking and scoring. In their last ten, they've averaged 2 goals a game, which is a serious output in League Two.
Now, Accrington ST have not lost in their last five - that's a fact - but let's be honest, four of those five were draws. They've drawn 0-0 at Oldham, 1-1 at Salford City, 1-1 at Swindon, and 3-3 with Sunderland U21. The only win was 2-0 against Cheltenham. Their home record over 20 games tells the story: 6 wins, 9 draws, 5 losses. That's nine draws in 20 home games, and it's the kind of record that makes you think, 'mate, this team is built for a 1-1.'
The head-to-head is mostly historical. The only meeting within the last 12 months was Gillingham's 2-0 win at their own ground back in April. At Accrington ST's ground, the older meetings show 2 draws and 1 loss for the hosts, so this venue has a way of producing low-scoring, cagey affairs.
The counter-argument is real though. Gillingham's away record over 20 games is 6 wins, 4 draws, 10 losses - six wins in 20 away games. And they've conceded 11 goals in their last five, which is 2.2 a game. That's a lot of holes. Accrington ST, on the other hand, have kept a clean sheet in 2 of their last 5 and haven't dropped points in five. If Gillingham's defence leaks like it has recently, this could very well be another 1-1 at Accrington ST's ground.
But here's what tips it for me: the form gap is significant. Gillingham are averaging 1.8 points per game over their last ten while Accrington ST are on 1.2. Gillingham are scoring 2 a game to Accrington ST's 1.5. The stronger side, in my view, is the one that's actually winning games and putting goals on the board. Accrington ST's no-loss run is built on draws, not wins, and that's a different animal entirely.
Key Points:
- Gillingham have won their last 2, scoring 8 goals, and sit on 5W 3D 2L in their last 10
- Accrington ST have drawn 4 of their last 5 and hold a 9-of-20 draw record at home
- Gillingham's away record is 6W 4D 10L in 20 games, with 1.55 conceded per game
- The only recent head-to-head (6 April 2026) was a 2-0 Gillingham win
- Gillingham average 2 goals per game in their last 10; Accrington ST average 1.5
My verdict: I'm going with the Gillingham away win at 2.88. The form is on their side, the scoring is on their side, and Accrington ST's recent output is mostly draws. I rate this at around 40%, which sits above the market's 34.72% view. Grab a beer, fire up the braai, and let's see if Gillingham keep the fire burning on the road.
