Accrington ST vs Swindon Town Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. It's a classic tale of two teams heading in completely different directions, innit?

Swindon Town are absolutely flying high in 2nd place, sitting pretty with 24 points from 11 games. They've been banging in the goals for fun - 21 in their last 10 matches, which works out at 2.1 per game. More importantly for this fixture, their away form is absolutely top drawer. 80% win rate on their travels and they're scoring 2.2 goals per game away from home. That's proper impressive stuff.

Then you've got Accrington ST, who're struggling down in 20th place with just 9 points. Their recent form has been shocking, I'm afraid. Lost 4 of their last 5 games, and they just can't score at home. We're talking 0.4 goals per game on their own patch - that's not going to win many matches in this league. They've managed just 6 goals in 10 games overall, which is relegation form, that is.

Looking at the recent results, Accrington got beaten 0-1 by Newport County, 0-2 by Port Vale, and 0-2 by Barnet. They're not even creating many chances, with only 31.5% shot accuracy. Swindon, on the other hand, are much more clinical at 42.3%.

Now, I know what you're thinking - the head-to-head is actually pretty competitive. Accrington have won 4 of the 9 meetings between these two. But form, as they say, is temporary and class is permanent. And right now, there's a massive gulf in class between these two sides based on recent performances.

The goal expectancy has Swindon at 1.90 goals and Accrington at just 0.70. That tells you everything you need to know about where the value lies in this match.

Key Points:

• Swindon Town 2nd in League Two vs Accrington ST 20th

• Swindon have 80% away win rate, scoring 2.2 goals per game away

• Accrington have just 20% home win rate, scoring only 0.4 goals per game at home

• Swindon won 8 of their last 10 games, Accrington lost 6 of their last 10

• Swindon averaging 2.1 goals per game vs Accrington's 0.6

Sometimes the stats just scream at you, and this is one of those times. Swindon are in red-hot form, scoring freely and winning consistently on the road. Accrington can't buy a goal at home and are leaking goals left and right. The away win at 1.95 looks like proper value to me.