Barnsley vs Blackpool Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this League One clash. Barnsley at home to Blackpool, two sides locked together on 29 points but with very different recent tales to tell.

Barnsley's form has been, let's be honest, a bit grim. Two wins in their last ten, shipping goals left, right, and centre – 23 conceded in that run is a proper worry. At home, it's been a mixed bag: a cracking 3-2 win over Leyton Orient, but then defeats to Lincoln and Mansfield Town. They're scoring at home, mind you – nearly 1.7 a game – but they're also letting in over two. That 0-3 thumping by Exeter City and the 2-3 loss to Mansfield show they can't shut up shop.

Blackpool, on the other hand, have been more up and down than a yo-yo. Five wins in ten tells you they can do it, but they've also been on the end of some hidings, like that 5-1 pasting at Port Vale. Away from home, they're a proper Jekyll and Hyde act: smashing wins at Wigan and Rotherham, but then those recent losses at Bradford and, yes, Port Vale. They score goals though, averaging over two a game recently, and even on the road they net 1.8.

Now, the head-to-head makes for ugly reading if you're a Barnsley fan. Blackpool have won seven of the last nine meetings, including a 1-0 win earlier this season. Barnsley's home record against them is one win in four. The Seasiders just seem to have their number.

So what's the play here? Both defences look like they've got more holes than a sieve. Barnsley concede 2.3 a game on average, Blackpool let in 2.2 on their travels. The goal expectancies are pointing towards a high-scorer, and the stats back it up. Barnsley's last three home games have seen 2, 5, and 3 goals. Blackpool's last three away have seen 6, 1, and 2 goals.

With the bookies offering 1.75 for over 2.5 goals, that looks like the smart move to me. Both teams have shown they can score and they've shown they can concede. I can't see this being a tight, cagey affair.

Key Points:

Barnsley have conceded 23 goals in their last 10 matches.

Blackpool average over 2 goals scored per game in their last 10.

The last meeting between these sides ended 1-0 to Blackpool.

Barnsley's recent home games are averaging over 3 goals.

• Blackpool's last two away league games featured 6 and 3 goals.

Summary: Forget the win-draw-win market, this one screams goals. Both teams are leaky at the back and capable of finding the net. The value and the stats all point to over 2.5 goals being a solid bet.