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Match preview
NetherlandsEredivisie
Match preview
NetherlandsEredivisie
Mama, I'm sitting here with the braai still ticking and a cold one sweating in my hand, and this fixture has got me leaning forward. ADO Den Haag host PSV Eindhoven on 17 October, and the numbers are painting a picture I can't ignore.
PSV have been cooking in their last 10 games – 6 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses, scoring 2.7 per game and conceding just 1.2. Their xG figures back it up: 2.63 per game for, 1.07 per game against. That's a side that creates plenty and keeps the back door locked. ADO Den Haag, on the other hand, have managed 0 wins from their last 5 – three draws and two losses – and they've conceded 10 goals in that stretch. Their xG for sits at 0.91 per game, which tells you they're not creating much.
Now, ADO's home record over 20 games is respectable – 12 wins, 3 draws, 5 losses, 2.2 goals per game. But that's an 11-month stretch and the current form is telling a different story. They drew their last two, picking up 3 goals and conceding 3. PSV's away record over 20 games is 13 wins, 1 draw, 6 losses, 2.25 scored per game. That's a strong away side.
The head-to-head is entirely historical – no meetings within the last 12 months – so I can't lean on it as current form. But when they did meet, PSV won 4 of 5, with scores like 4-0 and 3-1. At ADO's ground specifically, the two older meetings produced a 2-2 and a 0-3.
Here's the counter-argument: PSV lost 0-1 to RB Leipzig on 13 October in the Champions League, and they dropped to Twente 2-3 on 20 September. That's two away losses in quick succession. ADO, meanwhile, have kept it level in their last two, and their home record does show they can hold things together. The market prices PSV's win at 1.3, which implies about 77% – and I'd put PSV's actual chance closer to 73%. That's a strong favourite, but not a lock.
But here's where it gets interesting for me. ADO have had both teams score in 4 of their last 5 games, and PSV in 3 of their last 5. ADO's home record shows 12 of 20 games with both teams scoring, and PSV's away record shows 15 of 20. The xG numbers suggest PSV will get on the scoresheet (2.63 per game), and ADO, despite their low xG, have found the net in most recent outings. I rate both teams to score at around 69%, which sits just above the market's 65.79% view at 1.52.
Key Points:
My pick: both teams to score at 1.52.
