Leeds vs Aston Villa Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. Leeds are in a right old mess down in 16th place with just 11 points on the board, while Villa are sitting pretty in 6th with 18 points. The gulf in class and form is massive here, mate.

Leeds have been proper shocking recently, haven't they? Lost 3-1 to Nottingham Forest, got hammered 3-0 by Brighton, and could only manage a 2-1 win against West Ham who are struggling themselves. They're scoring just a goal a game and letting in 1.6 - that's relegation form, that is. At home, they're slightly better with 1.25 goals per game, but still only winning 25% of their home matches.

Villa, on the other hand, are flying. Seven wins in their last ten games, scoring 1.7 goals per game and keeping it tight at the back with only 0.8 conceded. They just put four past Bournemouth and looked quality doing it. Now, here's the thing - their away form is nowhere near as good as home (only 25% away wins), but even then, they're still a much better side than Leeds.

Head-to-head, Villa have the edge with four wins to Leeds' two, and importantly, Leeds have never beaten Villa at home in their last four attempts (0 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses). That's a proper stat, that is.

The odds have Villa at 2.35 for the away win, which looks decent value to me. Yeah, they're not as good on the road, but they're playing a Leeds side that can't buy a win at the moment. Villa's quality should shine through here, even away from home.

Both teams to score? Could be - Leeds have both teams scoring in 60% of their games, Villa in 50%. But at 1.91 for both options, I'd rather stick with the away win where I think there's more value.

This has got Villa win written all over it for me. They're in form, they're scoring goals, and Leeds are there for the taking.