AFC Fylde vs Scunthorpe Prediction

AFC Fylde have been a force at home, and that's the story that jumps out when you look at this fixture. Over their last 20 home games, they've won 13, drawn 2 and lost 5, racking up 2.5 goals per game while conceding just 1.25. That's a record that speaks for itself.

Scunthorpe, on the other hand, have struggled on the road. Their last 20 away games have produced 7 wins, 3 draws and 10 losses, with 1.5 goals scored per game and 1.75 conceded. That's a team that's found it hard to get results away from home, and the numbers don't lie.

The catch – and it's a big one – is that AFC Fylde have lost their last two games: 1–3 at Southend on 3 October and 0–2 at home to Carlisle on 29 September. So recent form is taking a bit of a battering, and that's got me thinking.

Scunthorpe aren't exactly flying either. They lost 0–3 at Barrow on 29 September and 0–1 at AFC Hornchurch on 19 September, though they did punch out a 4–1 win over Hartlepool at home on 26 September and a 2–0 away win at Sutton Utd on 12 September. Their last 5 has been 2 wins, 3 losses, with 7 goals scored and 7 conceded.

There's no head-to-head on record between these two, so we're flying blind on that front. The matchup comparison tells us the home side are the stronger proposition on the numbers – 2.05 points per game at home versus 1.2 away for Scunthorpe, and a goals-per-game gap of 2.5 to 1.5 in Fylde's favour.

Now, where does that leave us on the betting side? The market has AFC Fylde winning at 1.83, which implies about 55% chance. The home record screams a higher probability, but those two recent home losses make it hard to push past the market's view with real conviction. I can't get my head around a home win at that price when the last two home games have been defeats.

What does stand out, though, is the scoring pattern. AFC Fylde have failed to score in 3 of their last 20 home games and kept clean sheets in 6. Scunthorpe have failed to score in 5 of their last 20 away games and kept clean sheets in 3. In their last 5 matches, 2 of Fylde's games and 3 of Scunthorpe's saw at least one team go scoreless. That's a pattern that points towards one side staying quiet, and the market at 3.00 for both teams not to score looks a touch short of where the numbers are pointing.

Key Points:

• AFC Fylde's home record: 13W 2D 5L in 20 games, 2.5 goals scored per game

• Scunthorpe's away record: 7W 3D 10L in 20 games, 1.5 goals scored per game

• AFC Fylde have lost their last 2 games

• No head-to-head meetings on record between the two sides

• Both teams' venue records show BTTS no rates of 45% and 40% respectively

My pick: both teams not to score.