Ajax vs FC Volendam Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Eredivisie clash. Ajax, sitting pretty in third, welcome FC Volendam, who are down in 15th and looking over their shoulder. On paper, it's a mismatch, but we've all seen stranger things happen in football, haven't we?

Ajax are the form side here, no two ways about it. They've bagged seven wins from their last ten outings, and that includes some proper results. Beating Villarreal in the Champions League and seeing off Feyenoord 2-0 at home shows they can turn it on when it matters. They're scoring for fun lately – 29 goals in those ten games – and at home, they're even more solid, conceding less than a goal a game on average. The 6-0 cup loss to AZ was a proper off-day, but they bounced back with a win in Europe, so I'm not reading too much into that.

Volendam, on the other hand, have had a tough time of it. Three wins in ten tells its own story, and their travels have been particularly grim. They've managed just a single goal in their last four away league games, shipping three at Groningen and PSV. They did pull off a nice cup win at Sparta, but league football is a different beast. They're struggling to create, averaging under a goal a game, and when they come up against the better sides, they tend to come up short.

The head-to-head makes for good reading if you're an Ajax fan. They've never lost to Volendam in six meetings, winning four and drawing two. The last game was a 1-1 draw back in August, which might give Volendam a sliver of hope, but Ajax's home record against them is perfect: two wins and a draw.

When you crunch the numbers, Ajax dominate the stats. They average over 15 shots a game to Volendam's ten, they see more of the ball, and their passing is far more accurate. Volendam's keeper is likely to be busy, facing over six shots on target per game from Ajax.

Key Points:

League Position: Ajax are 3rd (34 pts), Volendam are 15th (17 pts).

Home Fortress: Ajax score 2.67 and concede just 0.67 per game at home.

Away Struggles: Volendam score only 0.5 and concede 2.0 per game on the road.

Recent Form: Ajax have W7, D2, L1 in last 10. Volendam have W3, D2, L5.

Head-to-Head: Ajax are unbeaten in 6 meetings (W4, D2).

Goal Threat: Ajax have scored in 9 of their last 10 matches.

So, what's the bet? The bookies have Ajax at a skinny 1.28 to win. Sometimes the obvious bet is the right one. Volendam's away woes in front of goal, coupled with Ajax's strength at home, point to a relatively comfortable afternoon for the hosts. I can't see value in the over 2.5 goals market at 1.36, as it's priced about right, and 'Both Teams to Score' is a coin flip given Volendam's poor scoring record on their travels.

Summary: All signs point to an Ajax victory. They're the stronger side, in better form, and have the historical edge. Back the home win.

My Tip: HOME_WIN @ 1.28