Ajax vs Heerenveen Prediction
Ajax's Defensive Woes vs Heerenveen's Goal Rush
Preview
Right then, let's have a proper gander at this Eredivisie clash between Ajax and Heerenveen. On paper, you'd think Ajax at home should be a banker, but dig into the recent form and it's a different story altogether.
Ajax are sitting pretty in 4th place with 19 points, but their recent form has been about as solid as a chocolate teapot. They've managed just 1.20 points per game over their last 10 matches, and here's the killer stat - they haven't kept a single clean sheet in 10 games! Not one! They've been shipping goals like there's no tomorrow, getting hammered 5-1 by Chelsea, stuffed 4-0 by Marseille, and losing 0-2 at home to AZ Alkmaar. Even their recent 3-2 win away at Twente showed they can't defend for toffee.
Heerenveen, meanwhile, have been ticking along nicely. They're averaging 1.50 points per game, scoring a respectable 2.00 goals per game, and while they're not exactly defensive maestros either (conceding 1.70 per game), they're actually finding the net more consistently than Ajax. They've just put three past VVV Venlo in the cup and generally look more dangerous going forward.
The head-to-head record is heavily in Ajax's favour - 8 wins out of 9 meetings and a perfect 4-0-0 record at home against Heerenveen. But form over history, as they say, and right now Ajax look vulnerable.
Both teams have been involved in some proper goal-fests recently. Ajax have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Heerenveen in 80% of theirs. When you've got one team that can't stop conceding and another that's scoring regularly, you don't need to be a rocket scientist to work out what's likely to happen.
The goal expectancy model has it at around 3 goals in total, with both teams expected to get on the scoresheet. Given Ajax's defensive shambles and Heerenveen's decent attacking form, that seems bang on the money.
Ajax might have the home advantage and the historical edge, but their current form is too shaky to trust them to keep a clean sheet. Heerenveen will fancy their chances against this leaky defence, and frankly, they should.