Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor FK Prediction

Alanyaspor are at home on 10 October to face Erzurumspor FK in the Süper Lig, and if you've been following the form books, this one has the smell of a home win about it — like a good braai in the evening with the boerewors sizzling.

Alanyaspor have been solid in front of their own fans. Over their last 20 home games, spanning from 26 September 2025 to 12 September 2026, they've picked up 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses, scoring 1.45 goals per game and conceding 1.15. In their last 10 matches across all venues, they've managed 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses, scoring 1.4 per game and conceding 1.2. Their last five games tell a good story: a 1–0 home win over Beşiktaş on 23 August, a 1–0 away win at Rizespor on 7 September, a 2–2 draw at home with Göztepe on 12 September, and a 2–1 away win at Çorum FK on 19 September. Three wins, one draw, one loss — and they've scored in every single one of those five. That's a side that's finding the net and keeping it tight.

Now look at what Erzurumspor FK are dealing with on the road. Their last 10 games across all venues show 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses, with just 0.6 goals scored per game and 1.4 conceded. In their last five, they've managed 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, scoring only 3 goals and conceding 8. The 0–3 loss at Beşiktaş on 11 September and the 0–4 defeat to Galatasaray on 21 August paint a picture of a side that's leaking goals and struggling to find the back of the net. Their xG against in those five games with data sits at 1.44 per game, while their xG for is just 0.59 per game. That's a team getting punished for what it's not creating, and it's not a pretty look.

The head-to-head here is entirely dated — all five recorded meetings span from 2018 to 2021, with the most recent on 11 May 2021. There's no meeting within the last 12 months, so I'm leaning on current form and the home/away records rather than any historical pattern. The older games at Alanyaspor's ground show 2 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss for the hosts, but that's five years of football and I'm not building a case on it.

The counter-argument is that Erzurumspor FK's away record over 20 games is not terrible: 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses, 1.55 points per game. They've won their last two home games 1–0, and they do have a decent away record. But that 20-game span goes back to 31 October 2025, and the recent form tells a very different story. The last 10 games show a side that's drawing a lot and scoring very little, and the xG numbers back that up.

Key Points:

• Alanyaspor have won 3 of their last 5 and scored in all 5, with a 1.4 goals-per-game record in their last 10

• Erzurumspor FK have scored just 0.6 per game in their last 10 and conceded 1.4

• The head-to-head is entirely historical (last meeting 2021), so current form and venue records carry the weight

• Erzurumspor FK's xG against is 1.44 per game in recent matches, suggesting defensive vulnerability

• Alanyaspor's home record shows 1.45 scored and 1.15 conceded per game over 20 games

My verdict: Alanyaspor home win. The form, the home record, and the defensive struggles of the visitors all point the same way. I rate Alanyaspor's chance of winning at around 55%, which sits above the market's 48.78% implied probability at 2.05. This is a solid pick — the kind of one you'd back while the beer is cold and the meat is on the coals.