Alaves vs Atletico Madrid Prediction

Right, so we've got Alaves at home to Atletico Madrid on 10 October, and if you've been following the Rojiblancos' form, you'll know they've been absolutely flying. Three wins in a row, nine goals scored, one conceded. That's the sort of run that makes you think, "right, this is the team to back."

And the numbers back it up. In their last 10 games, Atletico Madrid have won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3, scoring 2.0 goals a game. Their last five matches all had over 2.5 goals in them. They beat Real Madrid 2-1 at home, thrashed Osasuna 4-0, and went to Real Sociedad's ground to win 3-0. That's a team in full flow, and the head-to-head doesn't help Alaves' cause either. Atletico Madrid have won 11 of the 18 meetings between these two sides, and the one recent meeting within the last 12 months — back in January at Atletico's ground — ended 1-0 to the hosts.

But here's where it gets interesting, and where I can't just hand you a tip with a straight face. Atletico Madrid's away record over the last 20 games is 7 wins, 1 draw and 12 losses. That's a 35% win rate on the road. And their last two away games? A 3-0 win at Real Sociedad's ground and a 1-2 defeat to Liverpool. So the team that's been scoring 2.0 a game at home has a shaky away record, and that's a real concern when you're stepping into Alaves' ground.

Now, Alaves at home are no pushovers. Over 20 home games, they've won 9, drawn 5 and lost 6, scoring 1.65 a game and conceding 1.25. They beat Osasuna 5-2 and Villarreal 1-0 at home recently. But their last two games haven't gone so well — a 0-1 loss to Valencia at home on 15 September, and a 0-0 draw away at Athletic Club. Their current run is that 0-0 draw, and they've failed to score in two of their last five. The last five games have also been low-scoring, with three of them finishing under 2.5 goals.

The market has Atletico Madrid at 1.91 to win, which prices them at about 52%. My gut says they're the stronger side and the form is undeniably there, but that away record is a genuine worry. I can't honestly rate their chances above what the market is already offering, and the same goes for the other markets. The over 2.5 at 1.91 looks tempting given Atletico's recent scoring, but Alaves' last five have been low-scoring affairs, and I can't get comfortable enough to back it either.

Key Points:

• Atletico Madrid have won their last 3, scoring 9 and conceding just 1

• Atletico's away record over 20 games: 7W 1D 12L, with 2 losses in the last 3 away

• Alaves at home: 9W 5D 6L in 20 games, but lost 0-1 to Valencia on 15 September

• H2H: Atletico Madrid won 11 of 18 meetings; the one recent meeting was a 1-0 Atletico win

• Alaves' last 5 games: 2W 1D 2L, with 3 of 5 under 2.5 goals

No Bet — the form points to Atletico Madrid, but the away record and Alaves' home record keep me on the sidelines.