Alaves vs Valencia Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this La Liga scrap between Alaves and Valencia. Both sides are knocking around the middle-to-bottom of the table, but there's a right old story here when you dig into the numbers.

Alaves are sitting pretty in 10th with 11 points, and while their recent form's been a bit hit-and-miss, they've had some decent results. They put three past Elche in their last home game - not bad considering Elche are flying high in 7th. They also nicked a 1-0 win at Athletic Club, which shows they can grind out results when needed.

But here's the real meat of it - Valencia's away form is absolutely shocking. We're talking zero wins in their last five away games, scoring just 0.6 goals per game while shipping 2.6! They got battered 6-0 by Barcelona recently, and even lost to bottom-dwellers Oviedo 2-1. That's not just bad, that's relegation-level bad away from home.

Now, the head-to-head tells us everything we need to know. Alaves have a 100% home record against Valencia - three games, three wins. In fact, Alaves have won five of the nine meetings overall, with Valencia only managing two wins. Last time they met, it was a 1-0 win for Alaves.

Looking at the stats, Alaves score 1.4 goals at home while Valencia only manage 0.6 on their travels. The goal expectancy model has Alaves at 2.00 goals and Valencia at 0.90, which tells its own story.

The bookies have Alaves at 2.25 for the win, and given that perfect home record against this lot and Valencia's travel sickness, that looks like decent value to me. Sometimes the simple story is the right one - home team with good H2H record vs away team that can't buy a win on the road.

Key Points:

• Valencia have 0% away win rate in last 5 games

• Alaves have 100% home record vs Valencia (3-0-0)

• Valencia concede 2.6 goals per game away

• Alaves beat Elche 3-1 in last home game

• Valencia lost 6-0 to Barcelona in recent away game

Summary: Sometimes you've got to back the obvious, and this looks like one of those times. Valencia's away form is diabolical, Alaves own them at home, and the odds are giving us a bit of value. Simple as that.