Alaves vs Villarreal Prediction

Right then, Friday night football from La Liga and we've got Alaves hosting Villarreal down at the Mendizorrotza. Now, looking at the table, you'd think this is a straightforward away day for the Yellow Submarine – they're sitting pretty in 4th with 54 points, level with Atletico Madrid, while Alaves are down in 16th just three points clear of the drop zone.

But hold your horses, because the story gets interesting when you dig into the away form. Villarreal might be flying high, but on the road they've been leakier than a sieve, conceding 2.2 goals per game in their last five away trips and losing three of them. They've shipped 18 goals in their last 10 matches overall – that's proper dodgy defending that is.

Alaves aren't exactly setting the world alight either, mind you. They've lost five of their last ten, including a 3-2 thriller at Valencia last time out and a 2-0 drubbing at Levante. But here's the kicker – when Villarreal come to visit, Alaves turn into a different animal. The Basque side have won three and drawn one of their last four home meetings against these lot, including a couple of clean sheets. They absolutely love playing Villarreal on their own patch.

Looking at the recent head-to-heads, it's been a goal-fest. Six of the last nine meetings have gone over 2.5 goals, and both teams have scored in seven of those nine. With Villarreal conceding for fun on their travels and Alaves managing 1.6 goals per game at home, the net bulging looks inevitable.

The bookies are offering evens (2.00) on over 2.5 goals, which looks a cracking price given both sides' defensive records and the historical trend of this fixture. Alaves need the points to pull away from trouble, Villarreal need them to keep pace with the big boys up top – expect an open game with chances at both ends.

Key Points:

• Villarreal have conceded 18 goals in their last 10 games and 2.2 per game away from home

• Alaves boast a 75% home win rate against Villarreal historically (3 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses)

• Six of the last nine H2H meetings have seen over 2.5 goals

• Both teams have scored in 70% of Villarreal's last 10 matches and 60% of Alaves'

• Alaves have scored 1.6 goals per game at home in recent fixtures

Summary:

This has got goals written all over it. Villarreal's away defence is shambolic, Alaves can score at home, and these two usually serve up a thriller. Over 2.5 goals at evens is the pick of the bunch – get on it.