Albacete vs Leganes Prediction

Right then, let's talk about a proper scrap down the bottom end of the Segunda. Albacete, sitting 14th with 23 points, welcome Leganes, who are propping up the table with just 20. This ain't just another match – it's a six-pointer, and both will be desperate for the win.

Albacete are the side with a bit more about them lately. They've won four of their last ten, including a tidy 1-0 away win at Burgos and, crucially, a 2-1 victory at Leganes's place in the Copa del Rey just last month. They've had some tough results against the big boys – losses to Deportivo La Coruna and Las Palmas – but they're a tough nut to crack at home against teams around them. They're scoring at a decent clip (1.30 per game) but they're also letting them in at the other end (1.50 conceded).

Leganes, on the other hand, are having a right mare. Two wins in their last ten tells its own story. They're picking up a paltry 0.80 points per game. The weird thing is, they can't buy a win at home (lost four of their last five there), but on the road they suddenly find the net, scoring an average of two goals a game. They nicked a decent 1-1 draw at league leaders Racing Santander, but they've also been turned over 3-2 by Zaragoza and smashed 0-3 by Almeria at home. They're all over the shop.

When these two get together, history favours the hosts. Albacete are unbeaten at home against Leganes (two wins, two draws). The last time they met, that Copa tie last month, it finished 2-1 to Albacete. So the lads in white and blue will be fancying their chances.

But here's the rub for your betting slip: both teams can't stop conceding. Albacete have kept just two clean sheets in their last ten. Leganes have managed only one. In fact, both sides have seen both teams score in a whopping 70% of their recent matches. Leganes might be rubbish, but they score on their travels. Albacete are decent going forward at home. It's got goals written all over it.

The bookies have Albacete at 2.25 to win, which isn't bad value. But the real value, in my book, is in the goals market. Both Teams to Score is priced at 1.83. Given the defensive records and the fact Leganes always seem to find a way to score away, I fancy that to land.

Key Points:

Albacete are mid-table, Leganes are bottom – a huge game for both.

Albacete won the last meeting 2-1 in the Copa del Rey just a month ago.

Leganes are in awful form (2 wins in 10) but score 2.00 goals per game on the road.

Both teams have seen BTTS in 70% of their last 10 matches.

• Albacete are unbeaten at home against Leganes historically.

Summary: This has the feel of a tense, scrappy affair with both teams going for it. Albacete should be favourites at home, but Leganes's away scoring habit means they're likely to get on the sheet too. With the stats screaming for goals at both ends, the smart money is on both teams finding the net.