Preview
Umery UnderdogEvery match in Serie C - Girone A has its little puppy, and the one I'm rooting for is Desenzano Calvina, the visitors to Alcione's ground on 18 October.
The football tells a clear story. Desenzano Calvina arrive in the form of their lives — well, at least in the form of their last two games. They beat Dolomiti Bellunesi 2–0 at home on 10 October and then won 2–1 on the road at Folgore Caratese on 3 October. Four goals scored, one conceded across those two wins. Their last five matches read 2W 2D 1L, with 1.6 points per game and just 0.8 goals conceded per game. Three clean sheets in five. That is a side that is clicking, and it is the kind of momentum that carries into a fixture like this.
Now zoom out to their away record over 20 games: 13 wins, 5 draws, 2 losses. That is 2.2 points per game on the road, with 1.45 goals scored per game and just 0.5 conceded. Ten clean sheets in 20 away fixtures. In their latest 10 matches across all venues, they have conceded 0.7 per game and kept 5 clean sheets in 10. The defensive numbers are quietly remarkable for a team playing on the road.
Alcione, by contrast, are struggling to find a win. Their last five matches are 0W 4D 1L — four draws and a 0–4 home defeat to Union Brescia on 20 September. They have drawn their last three games, scoring 4 and conceding 4. At home over 20 games they have 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses, 1.5 points per game, and 0.9 goals conceded per game. Not terrible, but not the kind of record that gives you confidence when the opposition is on a roll.
The head-to-head is three years old — two Alcione wins (2–1 and 1–0) and one draw at Desenzano Calvina's ground. That is historical record, not current form, and I would not hang a decision on it.
The counter-argument for Alcione is their home record and the fact that they have not lost in their last three games. Three draws in a row is not nothing, and 8 wins in 20 home games shows they can produce results at this ground. But draws are not wins, and a 0–4 home defeat four weeks ago is a hard pill to swallow.
Key Points:
- Desenzano Calvina won their last two games, scoring 4 and conceding 1
- Their away record over 20 games: 13W 5D 2L, 0.5 goals conceded per game
- Alcione have won 0 of their last 5, drawing 4 and losing 1
- The head-to-head is 3 years old and does not reflect current form
- Desenzano Calvina kept 5 clean sheets in their latest 10 matches
My pick: Desenzano Calvina away win at 3.05. The little puppy is in the form of their lives, and the numbers on the road say they are more than capable of coming here and taking all three points. The market has them at 32.79%, but the football evidence points to a higher chance than that. I rate their probability at around 42%, which is where the value lives. Back the underdog — that's what we do. 🐾