Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin Prediction

Aldosivi's home record tells a clear story about goals. Over 20 home games spanning 12 months, the team has kept the total under 2.5 in 14 of those 20 matches, and their scoring output at home is modest at 1.05 goals per game. Sarmiento Junin on the road is equally unproductive, managing just 0.85 goals per game across 20 away games, with 11 of those 20 finishing under 2.5. When you stack those two records together, the picture of a tight, low-scoring contest at Aldosivi's ground is hard to ignore.

The head-to-head reinforces the low-scoring narrative. The two meetings at Aldosivi's ground from the historical record finished 2–2 and 1–2, both under 2.5. Across all 12 meetings between these sides, 8 of 12 have finished under 2.5. The one meeting within the last 12 months, at Sarmiento Junin's ground on 22 March 2026, was a 2–0 home win for Sarmiento Junin, again a low-scoring result.

However, the recent form tells a different story. Aldosivi's last five matches produced 3 of 5 over 2.5, and their last 10 across all venues has seen 6 of 10 go over the line. Sarmiento Junin's last five had 2 of 5 over 2.5, and their last 10 also shows 6 of 10 over 2.5. Sarmiento Junin's away record over 20 games has 9 of 20 going over 2.5. The xG data for Sarmiento Junin over 8 recent games shows 1.22 expected goals per game for and 1.27 against, suggesting a team that is involved in open games.

The form gap between the two sides is notable. Aldosivi have won just 2 of their last 10 matches (2W 1D 7L), scoring 1.1 per game and conceding 1.7. Sarmiento Junin have won 5 of their last 10 (5W 1D 4L), scoring 1.7 per game and conceding 1.6. In the head-to-head, Sarmiento Junin have won 6 of 12 meetings, and the recent meeting within 12 months was a 2–0 Sarmiento Junin win. Aldosivi's current run is a loss, and they picked up a red card in their most recent outing at Huracan on 4 October.

The market prices under 2.5 at 1.55, implying a 64.52% chance. The home and away records strongly support a low-scoring outcome, but the recent form of both teams — particularly the over-2.5 frequency in their last 10 games — pulls the estimate down. My honest reading of the evidence puts the under-2.5 probability in the low-to-mid 60s, which sits below the level I need to feel confident recommending the price. The BTTS no market at 1.75 (57.14% implied) faces a similar issue: the venue records favour it, but the recent BTTS yes frequency (6 of 10 for Aldosivi, 7 of 10 for Sarmiento Junin) keeps my estimate in the mid-50s.

Key Points:

• Aldosivi's home record: 14 of 20 games under 2.5, 12 of 20 BTTS no

• Sarmiento Junin's away record: 11 of 20 games under 2.5, 11 of 20 BTTS no

• Head-to-head at Aldosivi's ground (historical): both meetings under 2.5 (2–2, 1–2)

• Recent form: both teams have 6 of 10 last games over 2.5

• Sarmiento Junin's last 10: 5W 1D 4L vs Aldosivi's 2W 1D 7L

No Bet. The venue records point toward a low-scoring game, but the recent form of both sides and the mixed signals across the data mean the available prices do not offer the value I need to act with confidence.