Alfreton Town vs Buxton Prediction

Right then, let's get straight to the gaff for this National League North clash between Alfreton Town and Buxton. It's a proper scrap coming up on 14th April, and the stats tell a clear story about who's in the driving seat.

Alfreton Town are having a bit of a struggle at the moment. They're sitting 22nd in the table with just 45 points. Their home form isn't exactly inspiring either; they've only won 33.33% of their last six home games. On the pitch, they're scoring about 0.83 goals per game at home and conceding 1.17. They've managed only one clean sheet in their last 10 games, which tells you they're leaking goals.

On the other side, Buxton are flying. They're 9th in the table with 66 points. Their away form is absolutely scorching. In their last six away games, they've won every single one. They're averaging 2.00 goals per game on the road and only conceding 0.50. That's a massive difference in momentum.

Now, the head-to-head history is a bit of a twist. Historically, Alfreton had a perfect record at home against Buxton (3 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses). But that changed in October 2025 when Buxton thrashed them 6-0. That result is fresh in the memory and shows Buxton's ability to dominate when they visit.

Looking at the betting markets, the odds for an Away Win sit at 2.07. Given Buxton's 100% away win rate recently and Alfreton's shaky defence, there's value here. The implied probability is around 48%, but Buxton's form suggests a much higher chance of winning. With an edge of over 6%, this is the pick.

Key Points:

• Buxton has won 100% of their last 6 away games.

• Alfreton has a 33.33% home win rate.

• Last H2H meeting ended 0-6 to Buxton.

• Buxton scores 2.00 goals per game away; Alfreton concedes 1.17 at home.

The tip is clear: Back Buxton to win.