Almere City FC vs FC Eindhoven Prediction

Right, so we've got Almere City FC hosting FC Eindhoven on 9 October in the Eerste Divisie, and if I'm being honest, the numbers here are telling a pretty clear story.

Almere City FC at home are the business. Over their last 20 home games, they've won 13, drawn 1 and lost 6, averaging 2 points per game and scoring 2.1 a game while conceding just 1.25. That's a side that comes to work at their own ground. And look at the last three home fixtures: 1–0 against FC Volendam on 3 October, 1–0 against Heracles on 18 September, and 0–1 against Jong Ajax on 4 September. Three games, three times at least one team failed to score. That's a pattern, and it's a pattern that favours the "no" on both teams to score.

Now, FC Eindhoven on the road are a different story. Their last 20 away games read 4 wins, 4 draws and 12 losses. They're averaging 0.8 points per game away, scoring 1.15 a game and conceding 2.05. That's a side that struggles to find the back of the net on the road. Their xG numbers back it up too — they've been creating just 0.98 goals per game in the four matches with xG data, which is a thin return.

The head-to-head here is a bit dated. The only meeting within the last 12 months was back in February at FC Eindhoven's ground, where they won 3–2. But before that, the older meetings at Almere City FC's ground saw them win 5–0 and 2–1. So historically, Almere have had their way at home against this side, though I'd stress those older games are just record, not current form.

The counter-argument, and I'll give it fair play: FC Eindhoven have scored in four of their last five games, including a 2–2 draw with De Graafschap just six days ago. They're not a side that sits back and plays for a 0–0. And Almere did lose 0–1 at home to Jong Ajax five weeks ago, so they're not impervious. The xG data also shows Almere creating 1.8 goals per game, which means they're not just parking the bus.

But here's the thing. Almere's last three home games have all been low-scoring affairs, and FC Eindhoven's away scoring record over 20 games is 1.15 per game. Combine that with Almere's home record of conceding just 1.25 per game, and the most likely outcome is one team finding the net and the other coming up short. The "both teams to score" market at 1.53 is priced at 65.36% by the bookies, but I'd put the chance of both scoring at around 55 to 56%, which means the "no" at 2.6 is where the value sits.

Key Points:

• Almere City FC have had at least one team fail to score in all three of their last home games (1–0, 1–0, 0–1)

• FC Eindhoven's last 20 away games: 4W 4D 12L, scoring 1.15 per game

• Almere City FC's home record: 13W 1D 6L in 20 games, conceding 1.25 per game

• FC Eindhoven's xG for is 0.98 per game in recent matches with data

• The only recent head-to-head meeting (February 2026) was a 3–2 win for FC Eindhoven at their own ground

My pick: both teams not to score.