Almere City FC vs Jong AZ Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper gander at this relegation six-pointer between Almere City FC and Jong AZ. Both sides are stuck in the muck at the bottom of the Eerste Divisie, sitting 16th and 17th with identical 11 points from 12 games. Someone's getting a chance to climb out of the basement here.

Almere have been a proper Jekyll and Hyde side this season. On the road, they're absolutely useless - 100% loss rate in their last 5 away games, getting battered 2-0 by Roda in their last outing. But at home? Different story altogether. They've banged in 4 against Jong Utrecht and even put five past FC Eindhoven. When they turn it on at their own patch, they can be lethal. The problem is, they're also generous at the back, letting in 1.8 goals per game on average.

Jong AZ come into this on the back of a cracking 4-0 win over Willem II, which might have given them some confidence. But away from home, they've been a bit hit and miss - only winning 20% of their travels. They do keep things tighter than Almere defensively, conceding 1.6 per game on the road, but they're not exactly free-scoring either with just 1.2 goals per game away.

The head-to-head record makes interesting reading. Almere have won 5 of the 9 meetings between these two, and at home they've got a 75% win rate against Jong AZ. Most importantly for us punters, 8 of those 9 games have gone over 2.5 goals. These two tend to serve up proper goal fests when they meet.

Looking at the stats, Almere are much more gung-ho at home, letting fly with nearly 20 shots per game compared to Jong AZ's 12.6 on their travels. But the visitors do keep the ball better, with 53.6% possession compared to Almere's 46%.

The betting market has Almere as favourites at 1.67, which seems about right given their home advantage and that decent head-to-head record. Both teams to score is priced at 1.45, which makes sense given Almere's leaky defence and Jong AZ's ability to find the net.

I'm fancying Almere to edge this one. They've shown they can blow teams away at home, and while their recent form isn't brilliant, they did grab a decent 1-1 draw against Cambuur in their last home game. Jong AZ's away form is patchy, and that 4-0 win over Willem II might be a bit of a false positive.

Key Points:

• Almere have a 75% home win rate against Jong AZ historically

• 8 of 9 head-to-head meetings have gone over 2.5 goals

• Almere score 2.8 goals per game at home but only 0.8 away

• Jong AZ have won 30% of their last 10 games compared to Almere's 20%

• Both teams are struggling near the bottom of the table with identical points

Given Almere's home advantage, their ability to score goals at their own patch, and that solid head-to-head record, I'm backing them to get the three points here. The odds of 1.67 aren't massive, but there's enough value to make it worth a punt.