Amazonas vs Coritiba Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this final day showdown in Brazil's Serie B! It's the champions Coritiba traveling to face Amazonas, and what a tale of two seasons this has been.

Coritiba have been absolutely bossing it this campaign, sitting pretty at the top with 65 points. They've already wrapped up the title, but their recent form suggests they're not taking the foot off the gas. Five wins in their last ten games, and get this - they've only conceded five goals in that run! That's some proper defensive solidity, keeping clean sheets in six of those matches. Their away form has been particularly tasty too, winning three of their last four on the road.

Amazonas, bless 'em, have had a bit of a slog of it. Sitting 18th with 36 points, they've at least done enough to avoid the drop, but their recent form has been patchy at best. Just two wins in their last ten, though they did show some fight with that 2-0 win over Cuiaba at home. They've been leaking goals too - 14 conceded in their last ten matches.

The head-to-head is nicely balanced with one win each and a draw, but Amazonas did nick it 1-0 when these two met at their place earlier in the season. Mind you, that was before Coritiba really hit their stride.

Looking at the stats, Coritiba's defense is the real standout here. Half a goal conceded per game is top-drawer stuff, and against an Amazonas side that only averages a goal per game, you've got to fancy the champions to keep things tight at the back. Amazonas have shown they can raise their game at home though, so it won't be a walk in the park.

The odds have Coritiba as clear favorites at 2.00, and given their form and defensive record, that looks about right to me. Sometimes the best bets are the simple ones, and this feels like one of those occasions where quality should shine through, even if it's the last day of the season.