Preview
Mr SimpleRight then, football fans! We've got a proper Boxing Day cracker in the Belgian Pro League. Fourth-placed Anderlecht hosting twelfth-placed Charleroi. On paper, it's a home banker, but as we know, football's never that simple... or is it? Let's have a butcher's at the facts.
Anderlecht are sitting pretty in the top four, just six points off the summit. Their form over the last ten is solid – six wins, two draws, two losses. But the real story is at home. Their last five home games? Five wins. A 100% record. And it's not just beating the also-rans; they've seen off the league's best. A 2-1 win over St. Truiden (who are third), a 1-0 shutout of league leaders Union St. Gilloise, a 1-0 victory against second-placed Club Brugge, and a 3-1 thumping of KV Mechelen. At the Lotto Park, they're scoring 1.8 goals a game and, more importantly, conceding a miserly 0.4. That's a fortress, plain and simple.
Now, let's look at the visitors. Charleroi have been decent enough lately, with four wins in their last ten and a knack for clean sheets (five in those ten games). But their travels tell a different tale. From their last four away days, they've lost three and won one (and that was in the cup). On the road, they're scoring a paltry 0.5 goals per game and conceding 1.25. Their recent league away trips? A 1-0 loss at KV Mechelen, a 1-0 loss at Club Brugge, and a 3-1 defeat at Standard Liege. They just don't carry the same threat when they leave home.
The head-to-head makes for good reading if you're an Anderlecht fan – six wins in nine meetings. Although, and it's a big although, Charleroi did win the last one 1-0 back in October. That'll be fresh in the minds of the Anderlecht lads, and you can bet they'll be well up for a bit of Boxing Day revenge.
When you dig into the numbers, it gets even more convincing for the home side. Anderlecht at home are averaging over 15 shots and putting more than five on target per game. Charleroi away? Less than ten shots and a shocking average of just 1.33 on target. Their shot accuracy on the road is a measly 11%. It's hard to score if you don't hit the target.
So, what's the play? The bookies have Anderlecht at 1.75 to win. Given their imperious home form against the top sides and Charleroi's struggles on their travels, that looks like proper value to me. The goal expectancies point to a low-scoring home win, so Under 2.5 or Both Teams to Score 'No' might tempt some. But for a clear, no-nonsense tip, I'm backing the form book and the fortress.
Key Points:
Anderlecht have won their last five home games, beating the top three sides in the process.
At home, they score 1.8 and concede just 0.4 goals per game.
Charleroi have lost three of their last four away league games, scoring only 0.5 goals per game on the road.
Anderlecht dominate the head-to-head (6 wins in 9), but Charleroi won the last meeting 1-0.
- Stats show Anderlecht create far more at home, while Charleroi are blunt away (1.33 shots on target per game).
Summary: This is a classic case of a strong home side against a poor traveller. Anderlecht's home form is formidable, and Charleroi's attack looks unlikely to breach it. With revenge on the menu after the reverse fixture, I'm expecting a comfortable, if not necessarily thrilling, home victory. The value lies with the Anderlecht win.