Annan Athletic vs Stranraer Prediction

Right, so we've got Annan Athletic hosting Stranraer on 10 October, and if you've been following the form book, this one's got a clear shape to it.

Stranraer are flying. Three wins from their last five, and if you look at their last ten games, they've won six, drawn two and lost just two. They're scoring 2.7 goals a game over that stretch, which is proper scary stuff. That 5-1 thrashing of Elgin City away three weeks ago showed they can hurt teams on the road, and the 4-3 win over East Kilbride at home was a bit of a scrap but they came out on top. Their away record over 20 games isn't pretty — 5 wins, 6 draws, 9 losses — but the recent away form is telling a different story.

Annan Athletic, on the other hand, are struggling. They lost 0-1 to Stirling Albion at home just a week ago, and their last five games have been 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses. They've failed to score in two of those five. Their home record over 20 games is 9 wins, 4 draws, 7 losses, which is decent, but the recent home form is patchy — a 2-1 win over Hibernian U21 in the Challenge Cup, then a 0-1 loss to Stirling Albion.

Now, the head-to-head is interesting. Annan have won two of the last four meetings between these sides — a 1-0 at home in March and a 1-0 away in August. But the other two were a 0-0 and a 2-2, so it's been a low-scoring affair. At Annan's ground specifically, the last two meetings were 1-0 and 2-2, so the hosts have a slight edge on the venue.

The counter-argument for Annan is that home form matters, and their 20-game home record shows they score 1.65 per game and keep 7 clean sheets in 20. Stranraer's away record shows they concede 1.75 per game, which is a lot. And the head-to-head at this ground hasn't gone Stranraer's way recently.

But the form gap is hard to ignore. Stranraer are scoring 2.7 goals per game over the last ten, while Annan are managing 1.4. Stranraer have only failed to score in one of those ten, whereas Annan have gone blank in three. The market has Stranraer as slight favourites at 2.42, implying about 41% chance. My read is that Stranraer's recent output and consistency give them a better than even chance here, so I'd rate their win at around 44%. That's a small edge over the market's view.

Key Points:

• Stranraer have won 3 of their last 5 and scored 2.7 goals per game over the last 10

• Annan Athletic lost their last home game 0-1 and have failed to score in 2 of their last 5

• The last 4 head-to-head meetings produced just 6 goals in total

• Annan's 20-game home record: 9W 4D 7L; Stranraer's 20-game away record: 5W 6D 9L

• Stranraer's away form includes a 5-1 win at Elgin City three weeks ago

I'm going with the Stranraer away win at 2.42.