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Right then, let's have a proper look at this Primeira Liga clash between Arouca and Moreirense. On paper, it's a mid-table scrap, but the numbers tell a different story altogether!
Arouca are sitting in 13th spot with just 9 points from 9 games, and blimey, their defensive record is shocking. We're talking ZERO clean sheets in their last 10 matches, conceding a whopping 2.5 goals per game on average. They've been absolutely battered by the big boys recently - 5-0 against Benfica, 4-0 versus Porto, and 6-0 at Sporting CP. To be fair, they've shown some attacking spark, netting 12 goals in those 10 games, but when you're shipping goals like there's no tomorrow, you're always in trouble.
Moreirense, on the other hand, are sitting pretty in 6th with 15 points. They're a proper Jekyll and Hyde side though - no draws in their last 10 matches, it's either win or lose. They've had some decent results, beating Casa Pia, Rio Ave, and Guimaraes, but they've also struggled against the top sides. The interesting thing is their away form - only 20% win rate on the road, but they've been facing some tough opposition.
When these two have met before, Moreirense have had the edge with 4 wins to Arouca's 2 in 9 meetings. Both teams have found the net in 5 of those 9 encounters, which gives us a clue about what might be coming.
The stats that really catch my eye are Arouca's home numbers - they're scoring 1.4 goals per game at home but conceding 2.2. Moreirense away are only scoring 0.6 per game but conceding 1.8. Put those together and you've got a recipe for goals, goals, goals!
Looking at the betting odds, Both Teams to Score at 1.80 looks tasty. Arouca simply cannot keep a clean sheet to save their lives, and Moreirense have shown they can score against anyone on their day. The goal expectancies suggest around 3 goals in this match, which fits perfectly with the BTTS scenario.
The market consensus gives BTTS Yes a fair probability of 52%, but I reckon it's higher given Arouca's defensive shambles. Both teams have been scoring regularly, and with Arouca's leaky backline, you'd fancy Moreirense to get on the scoresheet even if they're not at their best away from home.
Sometimes you've got to follow the numbers, and right now the numbers are screaming 'both teams score' in this one!
