Arsenal vs Everton Prediction

Right then, we've got the Gunners hosting the Toffees in a proper Premier League dust-up. Arsenal are sitting pretty at the summit with 67 points from 30 games, seven clear of City, while Everton are knocking about in eighth looking to spring a surprise.

Now, Arsenal are absolutely flying at the moment – unbeaten in their last ten with seven wins and three draws. At home they're tighter than a drum, winning all four recent matches and banging in 2.5 goals a game. They've put four past Wigan, three past Sunderland, and most recently saw off Chelsea 2-1 in a proper battle. Even when they went to the Lane and battered Spurs 4-1, they looked unstoppable.

But don't write off Everton, mate. The Toffees have been road warriors lately, winning three of their last four away days. They stuck three past Newcastle in a cracking 3-2 win, beat Fulham 2-1, and even kept a clean sheet in a 1-0 sneaky win at Villa Park. They're finding the net away from home – 1.75 goals per game on their travels – and with Arsenal conceding in three of their last ten overall, there's goals in this for the visitors.

The head-to-head makes grim reading for Everton fans – Arsenal have won six of the last nine and four of the last five at home, including that 1-0 win back in December. But here's the rub: Arsenal to win is priced at 1.36, which is shorter than a London winter's day. That's taking the mickey – no value there even if they probably will win.

So where's the money? Look at the goal line. Arsenal's home games have seen 2, 4, 3 and 1 goals – that's three out of four going over 2.5. Everton's away days have produced 5, 3, 2 and 1 goals – plenty of action there too. With the Gunners averaging 2.5 at home and Everton managing 1.75 on the road, the stats point to a high-scoring affair. Both teams are finding the net regularly, and while Arsenal have kept it tight at the back against the likes of Wigan and Sunderland, Everton are a different kettle of fish away from home.

Key Points:

• Arsenal unbeaten in last 10 (7 wins, 3 draws) with 100% home win rate in last 4

• Gunners averaging 2.5 goals per game at home, conceding just 0.25 per game

• Everton strong on the road: 75% win rate in last 4 away games, scoring in all 4

• Toffees averaging 1.75 goals per game away from home

• Arsenal win odds of 1.36 offer no betting value despite likely outcome

• Recent venue trends suggest high probability of three or more goals

Summary: Leave the 1.36 alone – it's robbery. Instead, have a butcher's at Over 2.5 Goals at 1.91. Both sides are scoring for fun in their respective home/away fixtures, and with Arsenal's attack firing on all cylinders and Everton finding their shooting boots on the road, this should have a few goals in it. That's the value, mate.