Arsenal vs Sunderland Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this one. Arsenal, sitting pretty at the top of the Premier League, welcome a Sunderland side who've been a tough nut to crack this season, sitting in a very respectable 8th place. On paper, it's a mismatch, but football isn't played on paper, is it?

Arsenal are in fine fettle. They've won seven of their last ten, scoring 23 goals in the process. That's more than two a game, and they've been doing it against some decent sides – a 1-0 win over Chelsea, a 4-0 thumping of Leeds, and a 3-1 away victory at Inter in Europe. Their only recent blip was a 2-3 home defeat to Manchester United. At home, they average 1.5 goals scored, but they've been more prolific on the road. The key here is that they create chances, averaging nearly 14 shots a game.

Sunderland, on the other hand, are the draw specialists. They've only lost six league games all season, but they've drawn nine. Their recent form reads like a stalemate festival: draws with Everton, Tottenham, Manchester City, Leeds, and Brighton. They're organised, hard to beat, but they have one glaring weakness: they can't buy a win away from home. In their last five on the road, it's no wins, three draws, and two losses. Even more telling, they've only managed to score 0.6 goals per game away from the Stadium of Light. They got pumped 3-0 at Brentford and 3-1 at West Ham in recent travels.

The head-to-head history is all Arsenal – six wins and three draws from nine meetings, with the Black Cats never managing a victory. The most recent clash back in November ended 2-2, which will give the visitors a bit of belief, but that was on their patch. At the Emirates, Arsenal have won four and drawn one.

So, what's the bet? The bookies have the home win at a skinny 1.26, which tells you everything. There's no value there for me. Where I see a bit of an opening is in the goals market. Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.79. Now, Sunderland's away games have seen goals – they concede 1.6 on average on their travels. Arsenal, for all their quality, have kept only four clean sheets in their last ten. I can see the Gunners scoring a couple, and Sunderland might just sneak one, like they did in the reverse fixture. Even if they don't, Arsenal have the firepower to hit three on their own, as they've shown recently.

Key Points:

Arsenal are top, in strong form, and average over 2 goals per game.

Sunderland are tough to beat but have a terrible away record (0 wins in last 5).

Sunderland struggle to score away (0.6 goals per game) but concede frequently (1.6 per game).

The last meeting was a 2-2 draw, showing Sunderland can get at this Arsenal defence.

• The value isn't in the short home win odds, but in the goals market.

The Simple Tip: All the trends point towards Arsenal dominating and creating chances. Sunderland's resilience will be tested, but their leaky away defence is likely to be breached multiple times. I fancy at least three goals in this one, so we're going for Over 2.5 Goals.