AS Roma arrive at this Serie A fixture with a home record that is hard to ignore. Across 20 home games from 29 December 2025 to 20 October 2026, they have won 13, drawn 5 and lost just 2, scoring 2.45 goals per game and conceding 0.95. Eleven of those 20 home matches ended in a clean sheet, and in none of the 20 did Roma fail to score. Their last two home games were emphatic: a 4โ0 demolition of Slovan Bratislava and a 2โ0 win over Genoa. The head-to-head at this ground within the last 12 months tells the same story โ Roma won 2โ0 in February 2026.
Cagliari, by contrast, travel with a heavy burden. Their 20 away games over the same period produced 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses, with 1 goal scored per game and 1.55 conceded. Their last two matches were a 0โ2 defeat to Bologna at home and a 0โ4 loss at Monza, in which they scored nothing and conceded six. The matchup tables make the gulf clear: Roma score 2.45 per game at home while Cagliari manage just 1 away, and Roma concede 0.95 while Cagliari concede 1.55. Roma's xG for across their recent games sits at 2.0 per game, while Cagliari's xG against is 1.74 per game โ a telling gap in expected output.
The counter-argument is that Roma's form is not flawless. Their last five matches include a 3โ3 draw at Napoli, a 0โ0 draw at Como, and a 3โ4 loss to Real Madrid at home in the Champions League. Their current run is a draw, and the 65% home win rate means that in roughly a third of home games they do not take all three points. Cagliari did pick up a point against Juventus in their last home game, and they won two of their last five overall, so they are not without a spark. The draw at 5.2 and the away win at 9.84 both carry a small but real probability that the numbers acknowledge.
Key Points:
- AS Roma's 20-game home record: 13W 5D 2L, 2.45 goals scored per game, 0.95 conceded, 11 clean sheets, 0 failed to score.
- Cagliari's 20-game away record: 6W 6D 8L, 1 goal scored per game, 1.55 conceded, 6 failed to score.
- Cagliari's last two matches: 0โ2 loss to Bologna and 0โ4 loss to Monza, scoring zero in both.
- Recent head-to-head at AS Roma's ground: 2โ0 to Roma in February 2026.
- Roma's last five matches include two draws and a loss, showing form is not perfectly consistent.
The evidence points firmly toward AS Roma, but the 1.4 price demands a level of certainty I cannot honestly claim. The numbers are strong, yet Roma's recent inconsistency and the 35% of home games they do not win keep me short of the threshold I require. No Bet.
