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AS Roma's home record tells a clear story. Across 20 home games, they have won 12, drawn 5 and lost 3, averaging 2.05 points per game and scoring 2.2 goals per match while conceding just 1. They have kept 10 clean sheets in those 20 games and failed to score in only one. Genoa's away record, by contrast, is bleak: 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses in 20 away games, averaging 0.9 points per game, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.8. They have failed to score in 10 of those 20 away matches.
The head-to-head at this venue reinforces the picture. In the most recent meeting at AS Roma's ground on 29 December 2025, Roma won 3–1. Two older meetings at the same venue (January 2025 and May 2024) also ended in Roma victories (3–1 and 1–0). The reverse fixture at Genoa's ground on 8 March 2026 saw Genoa win 2–1.
Roma's xG numbers in recent games with data (6 matches) show 2.05 expected goals per game for and 1.23 against. Genoa's xG figures (5 matches) show 1.06 for and 1.13 against. The xG figures show Roma outperforming Genoa on both attack and defence in recent matches.
However, Roma's immediate form has been inconsistent. Three days before this fixture they lost 3–4 to Real Madrid at home in the Champions League, and six days before that they drew 0–0 at Como with a player sent off in the 53rd minute. Their last five matches yield 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss. Genoa, meanwhile, beat Fiorentina 2–1 at home on 10 October, though their away record remains poor, with losses to Parma (1–2) and Rapid (0–2) in recent weeks.
The counter-argument is that Roma's recent results against top opposition and the 0–0 at Como suggest a side that can be blunt, and Genoa's 2–1 win over Fiorentina shows they can produce a result. But the 20-game home and away records, the head-to-head at this venue, and the xG differential all point firmly to Roma. The question is whether the available prices reflect enough confidence given Roma's shaky recent run.
Key Points:
- AS Roma: 12W 5D 3L in 20 home games, 2.2 goals scored per game, 10 clean sheets
- Genoa: 4W 6D 10L in 20 away games, 0.8 goals scored per game, 10 failures to score
- Head-to-head at Roma's ground: Roma won the recent meeting 3–1; two older meetings also ended in Roma victories
- Roma's last 5: 1W 3D 1L, including a 3–4 loss to Real Madrid at home
- Genoa's last 5: 2W 1D 2L, with a 2–1 win over Fiorentina at home
The evidence strongly favours AS Roma, but the recent dip in form and the prices available do not give me the certainty I require. No bet.