Aston Villa vs Brentford Prediction

Alright, let's have a proper look at this one, shall we? It's Aston Villa hosting Brentford in the Premier League, and on paper, it's a bit of a tasty clash. Villa are sitting pretty in third, just behind the big boys, while Brentford are a respectable eighth. But the form book tells a different story to the league table over the last few weeks.

Villa are on a proper roll. In their last five outings across all competitions, they've bagged four wins. They went up to Newcastle and won 2-0, they nicked a 1-0 win in Europe against a strong Fenerbahçe side, and they've beaten the likes of Chelsea and Manchester United recently. The only real blot was a surprise 1-0 home loss to Everton. They're scoring goals and, more importantly, they're keeping it tight at the back, conceding just 0.9 goals a game on average.

Now, Brentford are a funny old side. On their travels, they've actually got a 60% win rate from their last ten away games. They smashed four past Everton and put two past Wolves. But here's the rub – look at their last two league games. They lost 2-0 at Chelsea, which is no disgrace, but then they went and lost 2-0 at home to Nottingham Forest. That's two league losses on the bounce without scoring a single goal. That's a worrying trend if you're a Bees fan.

When these two have met before, it's been Villa's party more often than not. In nine meetings, Villa have won four and drawn four, with Brentford managing just one win. At Villa Park, the hosts are unbeaten against the Bees with two wins and two draws. The last meeting back in September ended 1-1, so Brentford will fancy they can get something, but history is against them.

So, what's the play? The bookies have Villa at even money (2.00) to win. For a side third in the league, in better form, with a strong home record against this opponent, that looks like a bit of value to me. Brentford's good away record has been built against teams lower down the pecking order, and their recent stutter suggests they might be there for the taking. Villa have shown they can grind out results against good sides and put weaker ones to the sword.

Key Points:

Aston Villa are 3rd, 13 points clear of 8th-placed Brentford.

Villa have won 4 of their last 5 matches (W2-0 vs Newcastle, W1-0 vs Fenerbahçe, W2-1 vs Tottenham, W3-1 vs Nottingham Forest).

Brentford have lost their last two Premier League games 2-0 (vs Chelsea and Nottingham Forest).

Head-to-head: Villa are unbeaten at home against Brentford (2 wins, 2 draws).

• Villa average 1.3 goals scored and 0.9 conceded in their last 10; Brentford average 1.6 scored and 1.0 conceded.

All in all, I fancy Villa to get the job done here. Brentford are a decent side, but they're wobbling at the wrong time, and Villa have the quality and momentum to capitalise. The maths says the price is right, so let's keep it simple and back the home win.