Atalanta vs Cremonese Prediction

Right then, let's have a look at this Serie A clash. Atalanta, sitting pretty in 7th, welcome Cremonese, who are down in 15th and looking over their shoulder. On paper, it's a bit of a mismatch, but as we know, football isn't played on paper. Still, the numbers make for some pretty grim reading if you're a Cremonese fan.

Atalanta are solid at home. In their last six at their own gaff, they've won four, lost two, and are banging in an average of two goals a game while conceding less than one. Their recent results tell a story of a team that can mix it with the best: a 3-0 demolition of Juventus in the cup, a 4-0 thumping of Parma, and a 1-0 win over a strong AS Roma side. They've kept clean sheets in six of their last ten outings. That's a proper defence.

Now, let's talk about Cremonese on the road. It's not a happy tale, I'm afraid. In their last five away games, they've lost four and drawn one. The real killer stat? They haven't scored a single, solitary goal in any of those five trips. Not one. They've been turned over 5-0 by Juventus, 1-0 by Sassuolo and Fiorentina. They're creating a proper drought away from home.

The head-to-head doesn't offer them much comfort either. Atalanta are unbeaten in the last four meetings, with two wins and two draws. The last time they met back in October, it finished 1-1, but that feels a lifetime ago given Cremonese's current form.

So, what's the bet? The bookies have Atalanta at a skinny 1.42 to win. That's probably going to happen, but where's the fun in that? The real value, in my book, is in the 'Both Teams to Score' market. 'No' is priced at 1.83. Think about it: Atalanta keep clean sheets 60% of the time. Cremonese have failed to score in 70% of their last ten games overall, and 100% of their last five away. They average a big fat zero goals per game on their travels. It's a recipe for a shutout.

Key Points:

Atalanta are strong at home, winning 66.7% of their last six and scoring 2 goals per game.

Cremonese are dire away, with 0 wins and 0 goals scored in their last five away matches.

Atalanta have kept 6 clean sheets in their last 10 games.

The last H2H was a 1-1 draw, but Cremonese's attacking form has fallen off a cliff since.

• Goal expectancies point to a comfortable home win, likely 2-0 or 3-0.

Summary:

All the signs point to Atalanta controlling this game. Cremonese look utterly incapable of scoring on the road. While the home win is the obvious outcome, the better value lies in backing at least one team not to score. The stats scream that it'll be Cremonese drawing another blank. I'm tipping Both Teams to Score - No.