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Right, so we've got Atalanta at home against Frosinone on 25 October, and if you've been following the last few weeks, this one's got a bit of a puzzle to it.
Atalanta have been through the wringer recently. They lost 0–2 at Ajax on 22 October, lost 2–3 to AC Milan on 18 October, and before that, 0–2 at Juventus on 20 September. That's three losses in five games, and they've only managed 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses in their last five. Their current run is two straight losses, scoring just 2 and conceding 5. That's not the Atalanta you'd expect at home, where they've picked up 11 wins from 20 games, averaging 1.65 goals a game and keeping 7 clean sheets.
But here's the thing — when Atalanta do get going at home, they go hard. Their last two home games were both 3–1 wins, against Pafos on 15 October and Venezia on 12 October. So there's a split in their form: the away games have been a nightmare, but at home they've been scoring and winning.
Frosinone, on the other hand, have been in decent shape. Three wins, a draw and a loss in their last five, with 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses across their last ten. They beat Sassuolo 4–2 at home on 16 October and won 2–0 against Como on 20 September. Their away record over 20 games is 10 wins, 8 draws and 2 losses, but that stretches back 12 months and the older games dilute the picture. Their last two away games were a 0–3 loss at Napoli and a 1–1 draw at Genoa, which isn't great.
The head-to-head is all historical — no meetings within the last 12 months. The last time they met was back in January 2024, when Atalanta won 5–0 at home. Before that, Atalanta won 4–0 at home in 2018. Frosinone did grab a 2–1 win at their own ground in 2023, but the overall record is 4 wins for Atalanta, 1 draw and 1 for Frosinone across six meetings. So the history says Atalanta have the edge here, but it's dated and I wouldn't put too much weight on it.
Now, the counter-argument: Frosinone's recent form is actually better than Atalanta's. They've scored 9 goals in their last five games and only conceded 7, while Atalanta have scored 8 and conceded 9. Frosinone's points per game over the last ten is 2.0, compared to Atalanta's 1.5. And Frosinone's xG for is 1.57 per game, which is higher than Atalanta's 1.38. So Frosinone's attack is creating more chances than Atalanta's recently.
Key Points:
The venue records tell me this is likely to be a tight, low-scoring affair. Atalanta's home games have gone under 2.5 in 8 of 20, and Frosinone's away games have gone under 2.5 in 9 of 20. Both teams' last five have had 2 games under 2.5 each. Atalanta's last two games were a 0–2 loss at Ajax and a 2–3 loss at AC Milan. Frosinone's last two away games were a 0–3 and a 1–1. The xG numbers suggest around three goals total, but the actual results have been lower.
My take: with both teams' venue records pointing to low-scoring games and recent results backing that up, I'm going with under 2.5 goals at 3.1.
