Atalanta vs Napoli Prediction

Alright, settle in with your pint – we've got a proper Serie A cracker on the cards here. Atalanta hosting Napoli, and if the numbers are anything to go by, we could be in for a belter.

Now, let's have a butcher's at the home side first. Atalanta have been absolutely flying on their own patch, winning 80% of their last five home games and banging in 2.6 goals a pop. They put three past Juventus in the Coppa Italia without reply not long ago, followed that up with a solid 2-0 away at Lazio, and even managed a 2-1 against Cremonese. The only blot on the copybook was that 2-0 Champions League defeat to Dortmund midweek, but with five days rest, they should be fresh enough.

Napoli though, they're a funny old team at the minute. Sitting pretty in third, but they've drawn five of their last ten – including a 2-2 thriller with Roma and a 1-1 Coppa Italia stalemate with Como. Away from home, they've been leaking goals like a sieve, conceding two per game on the road. They shipped three at Juventus, three against Chelsea in Europe, and even let Genoa score twice in their 3-2 win. The attack is still ticking with 1.5 goals per game away, but that backline looks shakier than a three-legged stool.

Here's the weird bit – and I mean proper weird. Atalanta have never beaten Napoli at home in the last nine meetings between these two. Zero. Zilch. Nada. Four home games, four defeats. Yet they've won three times away from home against them! Football, eh? It's a funny old game.

But looking at the recent form and the goal expectancies – we're talking 2.30 for Atalanta and 1.15 for Napoli – the maths points to goals. Eight of the last nine meetings went Over 2.5, and with Atalanta's home firepower meeting Napoli's away day generosity, I can't see that changing.

Key Points:

• Atalanta have won 80% of their last 5 home games, scoring 2.6 goals per game

• Napoli have conceded 2.0 goals per game in their last 4 away matches

• 8 of the last 9 H2H meetings have gone Over 2.5 goals

• Goal expectancies suggest 3.45 total goals expected

• Napoli are winless in their last 2 (draws vs Roma and Como)

Summary:

The home win at 2.45 looks tempting given Atalanta's form, but that rotten H2H record against Napoli on their own turf puts me right off. Instead, I'm following the goals trend. Over 2.5 goals at 2.10 is the value play here – these two usually serve up a feast, and the current form suggests more of the same. Get on it.