Preview
PajimonRight, so we've got Atalanta at home taking on Venezia, and let me tell you, this one's got a nice flavour to it. The kind of fixture where you crack open a cold one, settle in, and the numbers do most of the talking for you.
Atalanta's home record over their last 20 games at this ground is 11 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses, averaging 1.85 points per game. They score 1.5 per game and concede just 1.0, with 9 clean sheets in that stretch. That's a solid home base, and it's the kind of record that makes you comfortable when you're watching the build-up. Over their last 10 games across all venues, Atalanta have managed 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses at 1.6 points per game, conceding 0.9 per game. Yes, they've lost their last three — 0-2 at Juventus, 1-2 at home to Cagliari, and 1-2 at AS Roma — but that Bologna 1-0 win at home on 31 August showed the home record is still there.
Now look at what's happening on the other side. Venezia have lost their last five games, scoring just 5 and conceding 13. That's 0 points from 15. Their away record over 20 games is 8 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses at 1.55 points per game, but the last five games tell a very different story. They've been leaking goals at 2.6 per game, and their xG against over the last five matches with data sits at 2.24 per game. That's a lot of holes in the boat, and it's not just bad luck — it's a pattern. Over their last 10 games, Venezia have managed 2 wins, 1 draw and 7 losses at 0.7 points per game, conceding 2.3 per game. That's a massive gap in form compared to Atalanta's 1.6 points per game.
The head-to-head here is all historical — the last meeting was back in March 2025, a 0-0 draw at Atalanta's ground. Before that, Atalanta won four of the five meetings, scoring 11 and conceding just 1. So the history leans heavily Atalanta's way, but I'll be honest, those games are 19 months to 4 years old, so I'm not treating them as current form. I'm leaning on what's happening right now, and the right-now says Venezia are in a serious slump.
The counter-argument is real though. Atalanta's xG for over the last four games with data is just 0.69 per game, which means they're not creating much. And Venezia's xG for is 1.54 per game, so they're finding chances even when the results don't come. That's a risk factor — Venezia could nick a goal and make it a tight one. But the overall picture, the home record, the form gap, the goals conceded — it all points the same way.
Key Points:
- Atalanta's home record: 11W 4D 5L in 20 games, 1.85 PPG, 1.0 conceded per game, 9 clean sheets
- Venezia have lost their last 5 games, scoring 5 and conceding 13, 0 points from 15
- Atalanta's last 10: 5W 1D 4L at 1.6 PPG; Venezia's last 10: 2W 1D 7L at 0.7 PPG
- Head-to-head is historical (last meeting March 2025), but Atalanta won 4 of 5 meetings
- Venezia's xG against is 2.24 per game over their last 5 matches with data
My verdict: I'm going with the Atalanta home win. The form gap is too big to ignore, and Atalanta's home record over 20 games is the kind of thing that doesn't just disappear because of three bad results. Venezia are on a slide, and this is the kind of game where the home side's record does the talking. Boet, this one's got meat on it.