Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so Athletic Club are at home on 13 October to take on Londrina in Serie B, and if you've got a fancy for this one, the numbers are singing a pretty clear tune.
Athletic Club's home record over 20 games is 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses. They average 1.15 goals a game at home and concede 1.1. Now, it's a solid base to build on. Londrina's away record over 20 games, though, is 4 wins, 5 draws and 11 losses. They score 0.95 a game on the road and concede 1.4. That's a gap that's hard to look past, mate.
And Londrina's current form? Oh, it's a bit of a nightmare. They've lost their last four games, scoring just two goals in that stretch and picking up eight on the way. The 0-2 loss to Criciuma at home on 2 October came with a late red card, and the 0-2 defeat at Vila Nova on 25 September showed they're struggling to find a way into games. Their only win in the last five was the 6-0 thrashing of Ponte Preta on 15 September, which feels more like a blip than a trend.
Athletic Club aren't exactly setting the world alight either — they've lost their last two, going down 1-2 at Goias on 6 October and 1-2 to Sport Recife at home on 1 October. But they've kept it competitive, drawing 2-2 at Fortaleza and 1-1 with Botafogo SP, and they beat Juventude 2-0 on 13 September. The key thing is they've scored in all five of their last five games. Even when the results haven't come, they've got the edge in front of goal.
The head-to-head at this venue is thin on recent meetings. There's only been one meeting within the last 12 months, and that was at Londrina's ground where they won 2-0 on 20 June. The older meetings at Athletic Club's ground from 2024 in Serie C saw Athletic Club win 2-1 on both occasions, but those are historical and don't carry much weight for what's happening now.
Now, the counter-argument: Athletic Club have only won one of their last five, and their last two have been losses. If they're still finding their feet at home, maybe Londrina's poor away record isn't enough to guarantee a result. But when you look at Londrina's four-game losing run and 11 losses in 20 away games, that's a tough sell.
Key Points:
- Athletic Club's home record: 7W 6D 7L in 20 games, 1.15 scored and 1.1 conceded per game
- Londrina's away record: 4W 5D 11L in 20 games, 0.95 scored and 1.4 conceded per game
- Londrina have lost their last four games, scoring just 2 and conceding 8
- Athletic Club have scored in all five of their last five matches
- The only recent head-to-head meeting (20 June) was at Londrina's ground, where they won 2-0
So here's the call: I'm going with the Athletic Club home win at 2.2. The home record, the away record, and the current form all point the same way, and the price is doing the talking.