Athlone Town vs Treaty United Prediction

Athlone Town are in fine form heading into this First Division clash at their ground, and I'm here to tell you the goals could be coming. Their last five matches have produced 11 goals for them and 6 against, with four of those five games going over 2.5. The 3-0 thrashing of Kerry on 18 September and the 2-1 win over Cork City on 2 October show a side scoring with real confidence at home. Over 20 home games, they've gone over 2.5 in 11 of those 20, and their 1.45 goals per game at home tells you this is a place where the scoreboard moves. The Big O loves that sort of thing.

But here's the rub, and I'll be straight with you: Treaty United have been a bit of a scoring nightmare lately. In their last five, they've scored just four goals and failed to find the net in three of those games. Their away record over 20 games shows 10 over 2.5, which is a coin-flip, and their last five at all venues has only gone over 2.5 twice. The most recent meeting at this very ground was a 0-0 draw back on 8 May, and the two meetings at Treaty's ground were 2-1 and 2-0. So the head-to-head at this venue is thin on goals, and I hate to say it, but the evidence points toward a tight affair.

The counter-case for a high-scoring affair is strong on the home side, but the away side is dragging the total down. Treaty United's 0-4 loss to UCD on 2 October showed they can be vulnerable, but that was at home. Away, they've conceded 1.85 per game over 20 trips, which does open up the possibility of a goal or two on the other end. Still, their 0.9 goals per game away and the fact they've failed to score in 10 of those 20 away games make me cautious about the total climbing past two. Athlone Town's 0.9 conceded per game at home also suggests they'll keep it tidy.

Key Points:

• Athlone Town have gone over 2.5 in 4 of their last 5 matches and 8 of their last 10

• Treaty United have only gone over 2.5 in 2 of their last 5 and failed to score in 3 of those 5

• The only recent meeting at Athlone Town's ground ended 0-0 on 8 May

• Athlone Town's home record: 1.45 scored per game, 0.9 conceded per game over 20 games

• Treaty United's away record: 0.9 scored per game, 1.85 conceded per game over 20 games

The Big O is looking for the goals, folks, but the evidence here doesn't quite push me over the line. Treaty United's recent scoring drought and that 0-0 at this venue last May keep my confidence on the total below where I need it to be to feel comfortable at 1.63. I'd love to back the Over, but I can't in good conscience. No Bet on this one.