Atlanta United FC vs FC Cincinnati Prediction

Look, I'm sitting here in SA with the braai sizzling and a cold one in hand, and this one's got me leaning towards the home boys. Atlanta United FC are hosting FC Cincinnati on 10 October, and the numbers tell a pretty clear story.

Start with the away record. FC Cincinnati have won just 2 of their last 20 away games, drawing 8 and losing 10. That's 0.7 points per game, and they're conceding 2.7 per outing on the road. Their last five matches have been rough — no wins at all, with defeats of 0-5 at Philadelphia Union (where they got a red card in the 16th minute) and 0-4 at Nashville SC before a 2-2 draw at Houston and a 3-1 loss at CF Montreal. They've conceded 17 goals in those five games. That is not a team that travels well.

Atlanta United FC at home, by contrast, have 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses in 20 home games, scoring 1.75 per game and conceding 1.65. Their last five matches have been 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss — not brilliant, but they've kept it to one defeat, which came against Orlando City at home (2-3). They drew 2-2 with New York City FC two weeks ago and won 1-0 at Portland. The current run is a draw, but the results at this ground are solid enough.

The head-to-head at this venue is thin. There's no recent meeting at Atlanta's ground within the last 12 months. The only recent H2H was at Cincinnati's ground in February, which Cincinnati won 2-0. But going back to the older meetings at Atlanta's ground, the hosts won 4-2 and drew 2-2. So historically, Atlanta have had the edge at home against this opponent, though those games are dated.

The counter-argument is that Atlanta's recent form is also flat. Three draws in five games, a 0-0 away at DC United, and that 2-3 home loss to Orlando. They're not exactly flying. And the xG data shows Cincinnati creating 1.71 per game in their last five, which is well above Atlanta's 0.98. There's a creative edge here that the scoreline doesn't fully capture, and Cincinnati's recent chance creation suggests they're the more dangerous side even if their away numbers are ugly.

But when you look at the actual results in this specific context — Atlanta at home versus Cincinnati away — the home side's record is clearly the stronger one. 6 wins to 2 in 20 games. 1.75 scored to 1.5. 1.65 conceded to 2.7. And Cincinnati haven't won an away game in their last five. I rate Atlanta's chances at around 43%, which is a touch above the market's 40.16% on the home win at 2.49.

Key Points:

• FC Cincinnati: 0W 2D 3L in last 5, conceding 3.4 per game

• Atlanta home record: 6W 6D 8L in 20 games, 1.75 scored per game

• Cincinnati away record: 2W 8D 10L in 20 games, 2.7 conceded per game

• Only 1 recent H2H meeting (Cincinnati won 2-0 at their ground in February)

• Both teams' venue records show 75% BTTS yes and 70-75% over 2.5

My pick: Atlanta United FC home win.