Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so we've got Atlanta United FC hosting Inter Miami on 17 October, and if you want to know who's got the edge here, the numbers don't really leave much room for debate.
Inter Miami's away record over their last 20 games is 11 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses, racking up 1.9 points per game. They score 1.95 per game on the road and concede 1.55. Atlanta United FC at home over 20 games? 6 wins, 5 draws, 9 losses, 1.15 points per game, scoring and conceding 1.7 apiece. Miami lead on most of the key lines in that comparison, and that's not a close call. Add in Miami's current form and it gets even harder to argue for Atlanta. They've won their last two games — 2–0 to New York City FC and 4–0 to DC United — scoring six and conceding nothing. Their xG numbers over the last five games with data show 2.15 created per game against just 0.91 conceded. That's a side that's clicking at both ends.
Atlanta, meanwhile, are on a one-game winning run after that 3–0 away win at CF Montreal on 14 October. But before that, they lost 1–3 at home to FC Cincinnati on 10 October and drew 2–2 with New York City FC on 26 September. Their xG picture over recent games (1.32 for, 1.41 against) doesn't shout a team in full flight. They've scored 7 and conceded 5 in their last five, which is fine, but it's not the sort of output that makes you fancy them against a Miami side scoring 2.2 per game.
Now, the counter-argument. The head-to-head here is mostly historical — the only meeting within the last 12 months was a 2–2 draw at Miami's ground on 5 September. The older games at Atlanta's ground (1–2 and 2–1) are split, and those are 19 and 23 months old, so they don't really tell you what's happening now. And Atlanta did come in with a clean 3–0 win just three days before this, so they're not walking in with their heads down. There's also the fact that Miami's only away loss in their last five was to Columbus Crew, where they picked up a red card in the 90th minute — that's a bit of a different scenario to a full-strength 90.
But when you look at the wider picture — Miami's away record, their scoring output, Atlanta's home struggles — the balance tips firmly one way. The market's 53.48% price on Miami to win feels about right for what I'm seeing in the numbers, and I'm comfortable sitting on that side of the fence.
Key Points:
- Inter Miami's last 20 away games: 11W 5D 4L, 1.9 PPG, 1.95 scored per game
- Atlanta United FC's last 20 home games: 6W 5D 9L, 1.15 PPG, 1.7 scored and conceded per game
- Miami are on a two-game winning run (6 goals scored, 0 conceded)
- Only one H2H meeting in the last 12 months: a 2–2 draw at Miami's ground on 5 September
- Miami's xG over recent games: 2.15 for, 0.91 against
My pick: Inter Miami away win at 1.87.