Preview
Mr SimpleRight, so we've got Atlante FC hosting U.N.A.M. - Pumas on 17 October, and if I'm being honest, this one's got a bit of a puzzle to it. Both sides are going through the wringer in recent weeks, but there's a clear edge for the visitors when you dig into the numbers.
Pumas travel to face Atlante with the better pedigree. Over their last 20 away games, they've picked up 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses, scoring 1.45 a game and conceding 1.45. That's a solid away record, and it's backed up by their recent output – in their last five matches they've scored 9 times at 1.8 a game, and four of those five went over 2.5 goals. They're not winning loads, but they're scoring and the games are open. That 3-3 draw with Cruz Azul just five days ago (with a red card to boot) showed they've got the legs and the nerve to keep pushing.
Now, Atlante's home record looks a bit better on the numbers – 9 wins, 8 draws, 3 losses in 20 home games, with 1.55 goals a game and just 1.0 conceded. But here's the rub: that record stretches back 12 months, and the last 10 games across all grounds tell a very different story. One win, four draws, five losses. They just lost 0-2 at Queretaro seven days ago, and before that they were beaten 0-3 at home by Pachuca. The 4-2 win over Monterrey three weeks ago was the only bright spot, and even that was a bit of a scare. In their last 10 games they're conceding 1.9 a game and scoring just 0.8. That's not the team the home record suggests.
The counter-argument for Atlante is that home form does matter, and their record at home over 20 games is genuinely respectable. They've kept 7 clean sheets and failed to score in only 3 of those 20. But when you look at the last 10 games in any venue, the numbers don't back that up. They're leaking goals and the attack has gone quiet.
There's no head-to-head on record between these two, so we're flying a bit blind on that front. What we do know is that both teams are drawing a lot – Atlante have 4 draws in their last 10, Pumas have 5 – and neither side is finding the winning formula. Pumas drew 3-3 with Cruz Azul and Atlante drew 1-1 at Puebla four weeks ago. The winning edge, when it comes, has been going to the visitors.
So where does that leave us? Pumas are the stronger side, they score more, they've got the better recent form, and Atlante's recent form is genuinely poor. The 3.0 price on a Pumas win feels like it's underpricing the away side's edge. I'd rate Pumas winning this at around 38%, which sits comfortably above the market's 33.33% view.
Key Points:
- Pumas' last 20 away games: 7W 7D 6L, 1.45 scored and 1.45 conceded per game
- Atlante's last 10 games in all venues: 1W 4D 5L, just 0.8 goals scored per game
- Pumas scored in 4 of their last 5 matches and went over 2.5 in 4 of those 5
- Atlante lost 0-2 at Queretaro just 7 days before this fixture
- No head-to-head meetings on record between the two sides
Verdict: I'm going with the away win for U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 3.0.